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Housing market confidence slips over quarter

Expectations that house prices will rise have fallen over the October quarter, and less people believe now is a good time to buy a house.

Thursday, November 24th 2011, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

The latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey found 40% of respondents expect house prices to rise against 44% in the previous quarter, while 37% say now is a good time to buy against 40% in the quarter before.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said that while nationwide house price expectations had decreased over the quarter, Christchurch continued to see improvement in price expectations and Auckland remained ‘tight.'

"A net 43% of those surveyed in Christchurch expect house prices will rise, compared to just over a net third of respondents in Auckland and a net 22% across New Zealand."

Nationally, there was an increase in the number of respondents expecting interest rates to rise over the next year.

"A net 57% of respondents now expect interest rates to rise, up from a net 46% in the July quarter," Tuffley said.

"However, there was a steady decline in interest rates expectations over the quarter, reflecting the deterioration in global market conditions over this period."

Tuffley said he expected Auckland to see the strongest house price growth, with modest house price increases nationwide next year.

"Underpinned by a continued level of housing inventory, we expect nationwide prices will increase at a modest annual rate of just over 3% heading into 2012," he said.

"The Auckland housing market is particularly tight, which is underpinning stronger house price growth in the region."

« Potential - and pitfalls - in mortgagee salesAverage weekly rent up 7.4% in year to June »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA ▼4.55 ▼3.55 3.89 3.99
AIA Special - ▼3.05 3.39 3.69
ANZ 4.44 3.55 3.85 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.05 3.35 3.99
ASB Bank 4.45 ▼3.55 3.89 3.99
ASB Bank Special - ▼3.05 3.39 3.69
Bluestone 4.44 4.44 4.29 4.34
BNZ - Classic - 3.09 3.35 3.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 3.75 4.10 4.55
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - ▼3.15 ▼3.15 3.19
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland ▼3.95 ▼2.89 ▼2.97 ▼3.39
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 4.35 4.45 -
HSBC Premier 4.49 ▼2.95 ▼3.09 ▼3.50
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 3.94 4.08 4.39
Kiwibank 4.40 3.84 4.14 4.40
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 4.40 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.09 3.39 3.65
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 ▼4.09 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 4.45 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 4.54 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - ▼3.09 ▼3.39 ▼3.69
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▼3.25 ▼3.45 ▼3.69
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▼3.75 ▼3.85 ▼4.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Bank 5.34 ▼3.89 ▼4.15 ▼4.49
TSB Special 4.54 ▼3.09 ▼3.35 ▼3.69
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.95 ▼3.99 -
Westpac 4.59 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.09 3.39 3.69
Median 4.60 3.65 3.89 3.99

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