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Prices up but turnover slowing:QV

The first sign of the impact of loan-to-value restrictions has been a drop in the number of listings, Quotable Value says.

Tuesday, January 14th 2014, 12:00AM 1 Comment

by The Landlord

It has released its latest statistics, which show that nationwide residential property values increased again in December.

Values are up 3% over the past three months, 10% up over the past year, and 12.5% above the previous market peak of late 2007.

Research director Jonno Ingerson said most of the nationwide increase in values was driven by strong increases in Auckland.

“A comparison of the main centres shows how much the nationwide annual increase of 10% was pushed up by Auckland and Christchurch. From the North Shore to Manukau values increased between 15% and 18% annually, and values in Christchurch went up 12.7%. In contrast, the rest of the main centres increased between 2.5% and 4.0% apart from Hamilton, which was slightly higher at 5.8%.

“Considering that values in Auckland have now been increasing since early 2011 it is not surprising that they are now 27% above the previous 2007 market peak. Likewise values in Christchurch are 20% above the previous peak. Tauranga remains 8.2% below peak, while the Wellington area, Hamilton and Dunedin are just above or below previous peak levels.”

Ingerson said the trend in the provinces was less clear.

“Apart from Wanganui and Queenstown all the provincial centres increased during 2013, but the increases were less than 5%. The exceptions were Gisborne which increased by 5.5%, and New Plymouth 7.3%.”

Only in New Plymiuth and Nelson are prices beyond their previous peak.

“Compared to 2012, sales volumes dropped in many of the provincial centres by a few percent. The notable exceptions were Whangarei, New Plymouth and Nelson ​where sales were well above the year before.”

Until October, sales volumes had been higher than in 2012, he said, but that changed when the LVR rules kicked in.

“The number of sales slowed down and the number of new listings followed suit. As yet there appears to have been no impact on values, although it is really too early to expect dramatic change,” he said.

He said the limits were likely to affect the market for the first half of the year.

“The impact of the speed limits is likely to differ across the country. Auckland values are expected to keep increasing throughout the year as both internal and external migration boosts the population while the supply of housing remains tight. This strong demand and low supply is likely to keep pushing values up, although the rate of increase will probably be less than the previous year.”

He said that in the last month or two of 2013 there were early signs that values in Christchurch and the surrounding areas may be faltering.

"In a few months from now we should be able to tell whether this was due to the LVR speed limits having a temporary influence, or whether values in Canterbury have reached their ceiling.”

He said: “Across the rest of the country it is likely that the LVR caps will have a downward impact on property turnover and values. Outside of Auckland and Canterbury there isn't the same imbalance between supply and demand. There generally aren't multiple purchasers vying for the same property, so the LVR speed limits are likely to significantly decrease demand and therefore prices.”

Ingerson said nationwide values were likely to increase only modestly this year, but that would probably be as a result of everywhere outside of Auckland slowing while the Auckland market continued to lift.

Increasing mortgage interest rates would also have an impact.

“Counter to these potential downward forces are increasing levels of business and consumer confidence, particularly in the big cities. Consumer confidence in particular is a strong driver of the property market.”

« Early signs of market change: QVTurnover dropped in December: REINZ »

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Comments from our readers

On 20 January 2014 at 1:29 pm Esther Taylor said:
I wonder about your comment on it limiting regional sales. For young people seeking their first home who can't afford a city-sized 20% deposit, then smaller centres must be starting to look very attractive! And anyone else wanting a better home without the big price tag. The only thing that I would say is keeping them away is work, so as soon as the job market improves sufficiently (which it is steadily doing), they will move. My experience from talking to people backs this up. They want to move, but worry about work. In our area a local friend who is an agent sees a steady trickle out-of-town buyers all the time. That was us 6 yrs ago, to get the mortgage down.

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

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