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Net immigration could hit 50,000: Report

Annual net immigration could push 50,000 this year, BNZ’s economists say.

Tuesday, July 22nd 2014, 12:00AM

by The Landlord

Booming migration is getting the blame for some of the pressure on house prices, particularly in Auckland.

The latest Statistics NZ data showed a 14% year-on-year increase in the number of permanent and long-term arrivals in the June year.

There were 100,800 recorded, the first time the 100,000 mark has been breached.

Migrant departures numbered 62,400 (down 22%). This resulted in a net gain of 38,300 migrants, the highest annual gain since the October 2003 year.

In the latest year, New Zealand had a net loss of 8300 migrants to Australia, well down from 31,200 a year earlier. Net gains were recorded from most other countries, led by India (7000), China (6300), and Britain (5500).

BNZ’s economists said net immigration could exceed Reserve Bank expectations.

“The June MPS, recall, had annual net immigration peaking at 37,000 this calendar year, subsiding to 23,000 next year and 15,000 in 2016. We believe it will be pushing 50,000 this year and will be slow to abate after that.”

But ASB's economists expect migration to slow over the next six months, as things improve for the Australian job market.

They expected it to peak at more than 42,000.

 

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build ▼3.34 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans ▼5.89 4.49 4.49 4.79
ANZ 5.69 5.09 5.09 5.39
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 4.49 4.49 4.79
ASB Bank 5.79 4.49 4.49 4.79
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance - Near Prime ▼6.35 - - -
Avanti Finance - Specialised ▼7.55 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.35 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.94 - - -
BNZ - Std 5.84 4.49 4.49 4.79
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans ▼3.95 - - -
CFML Home Loans ▼6.05 - - -
CFML Prime Loans ▼6.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans ▼6.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 6.44 4.85 4.95 4.95
China Construction Bank Special 6.44 5.85 5.95 5.95
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.35 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.99 4.45 4.49 4.79
Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.99 4.95 4.99 5.29
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 4.79 4.95 -
First Credit Union Standard 6.49 5.39 5.55 -
Heartland Bank - Online ▼5.30 5.89 - -
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage 7.99 - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 7.45 5.90 5.80 -
ICBC 5.39 4.25 4.59 4.79
Kainga Ora 6.29 4.75 4.75 4.99
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 5.65 5.39 5.39 5.65
Kiwibank - Offset 5.65 - - -
Kiwibank Special 6.15 4.49 4.49 4.85
Liberty 6.65 6.55 6.22 6.20
Nelson Building Society ▼6.49 4.59 ▼4.59 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 6.55 - - -
Pepper Money Prime 5.99 - - -
Pepper Money Specialist 8.00 - - -
SBS Bank ▼5.84 5.09 5.09 5.39
SBS Bank Special - 4.49 4.49 4.79
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Construction lending for FHB 3.74 - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo ▼3.29 4.29 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 7.99 - - -
TSB Bank ▼6.59 5.19 5.29 5.59
TSB Special ▼5.79 4.39 4.49 4.79
Unity First Home Buyer special - 3.99 - -
Unity Special 6.39 4.49 4.65 -
Unity Standard 6.39 5.29 5.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.15 4.59 4.59 -
Westpac 5.89 5.09 5.05 5.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Choices Everyday 5.99 - - -
Westpac Offset 5.89 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.49 4.45 4.75
Median 6.05 4.67 4.85 4.85

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