Mixed data seals deal
Auckland prices might be up in new agency data but investors shouldn’t think that means the market is racing again.
Thursday, December 3rd 2015, 11:25AM
by Miriam Bell
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens
The latest Barfoot & Thompson data is out and it indicates that Auckland’s prices have gone up again.
Auckland’s average sale price jumped by 4.2% to $876,075 in November, from $840,402 in October, the data shows.
At the same time, the city’s median price went up by 1.9% to $795,000 from $780,000 in October.
Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said that, after seven months of modest monthly increases, it was necessary to go back to March 2014 to find a bigger monthly increase in the average sales price.
But the agency had seen a lot of properties in the over $1 million price category selling in November, and that tends to skew the price figures, she said.
“While prices seem to have ignored Government and Reserve Bank measures designed to cool prices, there has been a measurable decrease in market activity.”
In October market activity slowed, and that trend continued into November, she said.
November sales were down by 7.7% on October, while new listings were down 7.5% on October.
The price segment which experienced the largest decline in sales numbers in November, as compared to October, was the $500,000 to $750,000 category.
It is a price category popular with investors with portfolios of less than three properties.
Barfoot said it remains to be seen if November’s prices are the last remnants of momentum that built in the lead up to the introduction of the tighter measures.
“The indicators are there that the market has slowed but, if people are waiting for a crash in prices, that’s not likely to happen.
“I suspect a lot of people are setting on the fence and waiting to see what happens with the market before making a move.”
However, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said that, once seasonally adjusted, the Barfoot & Thompson data showed a drop of 16% in sales activity in November.
This followed a drop of 20% in October and left market activity at levels similar to those prior to the 2014 election.
That was a pretty slow market, he said.
“After October’s housing market data - which was shockingly weak – there may still have been a few doubters out there who thought it was just one month of data.
“But this data really seals the deal. It is very clear that the Auckland market is slowing.”
| « Apartment price data misleading | National price growth strong » |
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