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Elevated migration the trend - for now

More evidence that housing demand won't ease anytime soon as new data reveals August’s annual population gain equalled previous record.

Wednesday, September 21st 2016, 12:00AM

by Miriam Bell

The latest Statistics New Zealand migration data shows the country’s unadjusted annual net gain of migrants was 69,100 in the August 2016 year.

This is the same total as the previous record set back in June of this year.

Migrant arrivals were up 6% to 125,000 in the August 2016 year, while migrant departures were down 3% to 55,900 in the August 2016 year.

However, while the annual net gain figure was up on July, the monthly net gain figure continued to plateau.

Once seasonally adjusted, there was a net gain of 5,600 migrants in August 2016.

Since reaching a peak of 6,200 in November 2015, the seasonally adjusted net gain in migrants has averaged 5,700 a month.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said this month’s net gain figure was essentially unchanged from that of July but, while down from last year’s peak, it’s still a strong pace.

August’s pick-up in annual net migration was mainly due to an increase in the number of New Zealanders who have chosen to either remain onshore, or come back from overseas, he said.

“The net number of non-NZ citizens arriving actually fell by 370. This was mainly due to a fall the number of people arriving on student and residency visas.”

Westpac expects annual net migration to gradually slow over the coming years.

This will be because people on temporary work or student visas start to leave, while an improving Australian economy starts to entice New Zealanders back across the Tasman, he said.

“However, this will take time, meaning annual net migration will remain at elevated levels for some time yet.”

Given housing shortages around the country, strong migration continues to play a part in public discourse over housing demand.

But, when it comes to demand, speculators, land bankers and off-shore buyers tend to be the focus of attention and discontent rather than migrants.

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 5.35 4.49 5.25 5.55
ANZ 5.54 5.15 5.85 6.15
ANZ Blueprint to Build 2.78 - - -
ANZ Special - 4.55 5.25 5.55
ASB Bank 5.35 4.49 5.25 5.55
Avanti Finance 5.45 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.45 - - -
Bluestone 5.29 7.49 7.59 -
BNZ - Classic - 4.55 5.25 5.45
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.55 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.55 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.55 5.35 5.94 5.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.55 - - -
CFML Loans 6.45 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 5.40 6.14 6.40
China Construction Bank Special - 4.45 5.19 5.45
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 4.70 5.20 -
Heartland Bank - Online 4.00 3.85 4.70 4.84
Heretaunga Building Society 5.95 4.80 5.50 -
HSBC Premier 5.49 4.39 5.15 5.39
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.25 4.29 5.09 5.35
Kainga Ora 5.43 4.57 5.58 5.85
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 5.00 5.55 6.19 6.39
Kiwibank - Offset 5.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special 5.00 4.55 5.19 5.39
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.95 4.95 5.85 -
Pepper Essential 3.44 - - -
Resimac 4.59 5.60 6.16 6.29
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SBS Bank 5.29 4.69 5.35 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 4.85 4.99
Select Home Loans 4.09 4.29 4.86 5.09
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.19 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.45 4.29 5.19 5.45
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.45 4.79 5.69 5.95
TSB Bank 5.59 5.14 ▼5.79 6.15
TSB Special 4.79 4.34 ▼4.99 5.35
Unity 5.65 4.80 5.50 -
Wairarapa Building Society 5.24 4.55 5.20 -
Westpac 5.54 5.09 5.79 6.09
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 5.54 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.49 5.19 5.49
Median 5.45 4.55 5.25 5.52

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