About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds Other Sites:   tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz
Last Article Uploaded: Friday, December 14th, 6:30PM
rss
Latest Headlines

Housing risks to peak in 2018

The risks posed by rampant house price growth and high household borrowing have peaked and the scene is now set for a rebalancing, according to global ratings agency Standard & Poors.

Wednesday, February 21st 2018, 12:00PM

by The Landlord

This is a major shift for the agency as last September it warned that housing-related downside risks remained elevated.

It also said that the unwind of both house prices and credit growth had some way to run before the risks subsided.

But in its latest report into the banking sector S&P presents an outlook based on a housing market which has cooled and will continue to stabilise as some headwinds abate.

S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Andrew Mayes says they see the recent slowdown in credit growth steadying and house price inflation consolidating around current levels from recent cyclical lows in late 2017.

“Thereafter, we expect relatively measured house price and credit growth.”

Beyond 2018, the agency’s outlook factors in recent government policy announcements, falling migration, higher lending rates, and changes to capital rules.

It acknowledges that some of these factors are likely to take some time to take full effect, while some may never be fully achieved.

Mayes says they believe it is unlikely a confluence of these factors will lead to a correction in house prices - all else being equal.

“It is also entirely plausible that stronger house price inflation emerges on the back of lower volumes, as indeed we are seeing to some extent at present.

“However, the absence of stronger credit growth should suggest the risks remain reasonably balanced.”

The swinging factor in S&P’s base expectations is the standing of the Reserve Bank’s existing LVR restrictions, Mayes adds.

“Our expectation is that any further easing of restrictions will likely come only after a protracted period of measured growth in both credit and house prices.

“As such, we do not see further relaxation feeding into a resurgence in housing-related imbalances, although such a scenario remains a downside risk to our base case.”
 

« Free Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and ChristchurchBright line test extension fast tracked »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.79 4.55 4.79 4.99
ANZ Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
ASB Bank 5.80 4.44 4.69 4.89
ASB Bank Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.50 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.95 - - -
BNZ - Special - 4.10 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.90 4.69 4.79 4.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.90 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 5.20 5.25 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.70 4.85 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.80 4.69 4.79 4.79
HSBC Premier 5.89 3.99 4.19 4.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - 3.79 - -
HSBC Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ICBC 5.80 4.59 4.69 5.09
Kiwibank 5.80 4.55 4.69 4.99
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.80 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 6.10 5.10 5.45 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.94 5.30
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.89 4.85 5.05 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 3.95 4.49
Sovereign 5.90 4.45 4.69 4.89
Sovereign Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.75 4.10 4.35 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.75 4.60 4.85 4.99
TSB Bank 5.80 4.45 4.69 4.99
TSB Special - 3.95 4.19 4.49
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.95 4.69 4.79 5.19
Westpac - Offset 5.95 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.15 4.29 4.59
Median 5.89 4.50 4.69 4.79

Last updated: 2 December 2018 8:39pm

News Quiz

The maximum remuneration model for Australian life insurance advisers is to be set at what?

Upfront 40% + trail 20%

Upfront 50% + trail 10%

Upfront 50% + trail 20%

Upfront 60% + trail 10%

Upfront 60% + trail 20%

MORE QUIZZES »

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com