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Warning on borrowing rates

The Reserve Bank's new capital regime will lead to greater increases in borrowing rates than its estimate, economists have warned.

Monday, December 9th 2019, 9:30AM 1 Comment

ASB economists believe the new regime will result in larger increases in bank funding costs and customer borrowing rates than the 20.5 basis points assumed by the RBNZ.

The benefits of the regime assumed by the Reserve Bank "may not be as strong and could even turn into a net cost", the economists warned.

Westpac economists expect rates to increase by twice the RBNZ estimate.

The bank's team of economists, including Dominick Stephens, said: "Like any insurance policy, this [regime] comes with an ongoing cost during normal times. Higher required levels of capital will increase banks’ overall cost of funding, resulting in higher interest rates on loans, reduced lending, and a lower level of economic activity than otherwise."

The Westpac team added: "The RBNZ has estimated that the effects of the new bank capital requirements would increase bank lending rates by 0.2ppts relative to the OCR. Our own analysis suggests that the impact could be twice that much."

Banks welcomed the outcome of the capital review last week, as lenders were given seven, rather than five years, to comply with new guidelines. Banks will also be allowed to use debt instruments as part of their required capital buffer. 

ANZ NZ chief executive Antonia Watson said the final rules were a "result of the consultation process" and would give lenders "clarity".

Watson said: “We agree with the RBNZ that having a sound and efficient financial system is critical to the economic well-being of all Kiwis – the debate was always about how far that went and how that cost would be shared.”

ANZ said changes would be implemented gradually, "bearing in mind the market was competitive for lending".

Tags: ANZ ASB Dominick Stephens Lending mortgages RBNZ Reserve Bank Westpac

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Comments from our readers

On 9 December 2019 at 12:07 pm Andy the adviser said:
A very poor prediction/plan by the banks indeed. If they simply increased their deposit rates (and reduced their margins for a while, and their record profits accordingly) they would attract depositors and meet the RBNZ capital targets quite quickly.

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 4.05 4.05 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.55 3.55 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 3.89 4.05 4.39
ASB Bank Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.49 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 ▼4.65 ▼4.80 -
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.54 3.54 3.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 3.97 4.05 4.39
Kiwibank ▼5.15 4.20 4.30 4.64
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.45 3.55 3.89
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.25 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 ▼4.45 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.39 ▲3.55 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 3.89 4.05 4.39
Sovereign Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.19 4.35 4.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 5.29 3.39 3.55 3.89
Wairarapa Building Society ▼5.50 ▼3.95 ▼4.05 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.39 3.55 3.99
Median 5.34 3.97 4.05 4.39

Last updated: 23 January 2020 4:42pm

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