NZX outperforms ASX in eight of 10 years

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New Zealand’s market has outperformed Australia's for eight of the past 10 years – primarily because of the make-up of the index, Milford Asset Management portfolio manager William Curtayne says.

Sunday, July 12th 2020, 10:37PM 1 Comment

The NZX50 is up year-on-year while the ASX50 is down 13.3%.

Curtayne said the New Zealand index was dominated by utilities, growth or healthcare companies – and a2 Milk and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare made up 25% of the NZX50.

Those two companies had been beneficiaries of Covid-19, he said. Australian large companies had not done so well by comparison.

But he said the result was a continuation of the pattern of the last decade.

Quality income stocks and growth companies had benefited “immensely” from the low-interest-rate environment. The quantitative easing that came into play “every time markets fell” meant multiples expanded and these companies had done well, he said.

Australia’s market was more weighted to cyclical stocks such as banks and mining companies that had not benefited as much.

“A low growth environment means cyclicals tend to get left behind as people chase income or growth returns.”

He said, if investors were to take the view that the next 10 years would be more of the same, they might look to invest in a2 and Fisher & Paykel.

It seemed likely that growth would be sluggish and rates would remain low, he said, which meant companies that benefited from low rates would continue to do well.

But he said investors needed to be wary of surprises. If inflation did reappear and interest rates went up it would be disastrous for those types of companies.

There was also a risk that investors chased those companies with such a passion that it created a bubble.

Tags: ASX equities Milford Asset Management NZX

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