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Last Article Uploaded: Monday, October 25th, 6:46PM

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Interest rate hike expectations grow

The recent surge in economic growth has increased the odds of an official cash rate hike in February, according to Kiwibank economists.

Monday, June 21st 2021, 12:57PM

Figures released last week revealed a 1.6% increase in GDP growth in the first quarter, and the surprise numbers have prompted the Kiwibank team to reassess their predictions.

The forecasters have stuck with their prediction that the OCR will begin to rise in May, but say "there’s growing risk of an even earlier move in February".

"Expectations of OCR hikes are shifting toward an earlier lift-off than the RBNZ had signalled in the May MPS," the bank said.

The team, led by Jarrod Kerr, said wholesale markets were not reflecting the increasing risk of rate hikes.

"From our viewpoint, all wholesale interest rates look too low. And the kiwi currency looks very low. We expect to see a strong lift in both interest rate expectations, and the kiwi dollar from here."

Kiwibank's comments follow ANZ's revision of its interest rate forecasts last week. The bank tips rates to rise in February if the economy maintains its current trajectory. 

Most economists now believe the central bank rate has troughed in this cycle.

The Reserve Bank's own forecasts appear to back this up. Its latest OCR track projects the OCR could rise from mid-2022, with gradual rises to 1.75% in 2024.

The RBNZ's projection is conditional and could change with economic circumstances.

Tags: GDP interest rates Kiwibank OCR forecasts

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 ▲3.25 ▲3.75 ▲3.99
ANZ 4.59 ▲3.84 ▲4.30 ▲4.54
ANZ Blueprint to Build 1.68 - - -
ANZ Special - ▲3.24 ▲3.70 ▲3.94
ASB Back My Build 2.04 - - -
ASB Bank 4.45 ▲3.25 ▲3.75 ▲3.99
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - ▲3.24 ▲3.79 ▲3.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.70 ▲3.84 ▲4.39 ▲4.59
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.70 - - -
CFML Loans 5.15 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 2.25 1.85 2.35 2.65
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.80 3.90 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 2.45 2.85 3.15
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.88 3.28 3.59
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank ▲4.00 3.80 ▲4.15 ▲4.50
Kiwibank - Offset ▲4.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.75 2.95 ▲3.30 ▲3.65
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 2.99 3.24 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 2.98 2.79 3.29
SBS Bank 4.54 3.05 3.45 3.75
SBS Bank Special - 2.55 2.95 3.25
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▲2.79 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.55 ▲2.99 ▲3.60 ▲3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.55 ▼3.49 ▲4.10 ▲4.39
TSB Bank 5.34 ▲3.75 ▲4.20 ▲4.44
TSB Special 4.54 ▲2.94 ▲3.40 ▲3.64
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 4.84 ▲3.79 ▲4.39 ▲4.59
Westpac - Offset 4.84 - - -
Westpac Special - ▲3.19 ▲3.79 ▲3.99
Median 4.57 3.21 3.60 3.89

Last updated: 22 October 2021 8:59am

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