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Articles tagged with 'OCR forecasts'

Non-banks to be run off their feet

3 December 2021 - Non-bank lenders will be run off their feet in the coming months, partly because banks are too traditional, according to economist Cameron Bagrie.

Will it be a 25 or 50 basis point rate increase this week?

22 November 2021 - Economists are sure the Reserve Bank will increase the official cash rate this week, but are divided on the size of the increase.

Westpac forecasting an even higher OCR

4 November 2021 - Westpac has increased its forecast for the official cash rate to 3%.

ANZ changes its call on OCR hikes

20 October 2021 - ANZ has changed its forecasts for the OCR adding in to additional hikes and expecting the cash rate to hit 2%.

Mortgage interest rates: Big step up predicted

7 October 2021 - Mortgage interest rates could be pushing 4% by the end of next year – on one and two year rates – and 4.5% into 2023, says CoreLogic.

RBNZ likely to lift base interest rate on Wednesday

4 October 2021 - Bank economists are forecasting a rise in the base interest rate this Wednesday for the first time since 2014.

October rate increases to follow recent moves

23 September 2021 - Banks are poised to raise interest rates further next month despite a wave of increases in recent weeks.

Mortgage rates have troughed: ASB

15 September 2021 - Mortgage rates have hit their low point in this cycle and the next move is up despite the latest Covid outbreak, say ASB economists.

OCR hike likely despite lockdown: ANZ

13 September 2021 - The Reserve Bank is likely to stick to its guns and hike the official cash rate by 25 basis points next month despite Auckland's ongoing lockdown, according to ANZ economists.

Government torpedoes fail to sink housing market

13 September 2021 - Despite the Government’s best intentions and policy shifts Kiwi’s positive expectations of house price growth are hard to sink.

RBNZ eyed 50 basis point OCR hike

26 August 2021 - Reserve Bank assistant governor Christian Hawkesby says a 50-basis point rise was being considered last week.

Economists react to rate hold decision

19 August 2021 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate in October, despite keeping it on hold today. 

Delta outbreak set to halt rate hike

18 August 2021 - A community outbreak of Covid-19 is set to delay plans to raise interest rates, according to economists at ASB. 

ANZ hikes rates ahead of RBNZ decision

17 August 2021 - ANZ has raised its fixed home loan rates by between 10 and 30 basis points ahead of the Reserve Bank's expected rate hike tomorrow.

OCR Preview Survey: Economists predict first hike since 2014

16 August 2021 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate for the first time since 2014 this week, with all eyes on the central bank's forward projections for interest rates as inflation soars.

House price madness probably slowing

9 August 2021 - Eye-watering house price growth is probably past its peak – Sally Lindsay reviews CoreLogic’s recent HPI data.

Outside odds of 50 basis point rate hike

9 August 2021 - Financial markets have priced in a 12% chance of a 50 basis point official cash rate hike next week, as the Reserve Bank makes its most highly anticipated decision in months.

Economists lean towards OCR hike next month

19 July 2021 - Kiwibank economists have joined their peers in calling for an official cash rate increase next month as the economy displays signs of overheating. 

Small investors pull back

19 July 2021 - Investors with one or two properties are bearing the brunt of the Government's housing market reforms, according to mortgage advisers.

OCR decision revealed

14 July 2021 - The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold at 0.25%. Here's what the central bank said:

Soaring house prices fuel OCR hike talk; Housing supply at risk

13 July 2021 - House prices jumped 29.8% year-on-year to June, adding further weight to the odds of an official cash rate hike in 2021: [READ ON] Property investors...

Soaring house prices fuel OCR hike talk

13 July 2021 - House prices jumped 29.8% year-on-year to June, adding further weight to the odds of an official cash rate hike in 2021.

Interest rates key to fighting house price boom

12 July 2021 - Westpac’s economists expect rising interest rates to play the biggest role in flattening house price increases.

OCR preview survey: economists look ahead

12 July 2021 - Economists say the official cash rate will remain on hold this week, but believe the Reserve Bank could give a signal on imminent rate increases.

November OCR hike: Predict Westpac and ANZ

7 July 2021 - Westpac and ANZ economists have become the latest to predict an increase in the official cash rate in November, as strong economic data prompts forecasters to change their tone.

OCR to rise in November: ASB

6 July 2021 - ASB economists predict the official cash rate will begin to rise from November, as the economy runs hot and inflationary pressures grow. 

Westpac tips earlier rate hike, house price decline in late 2022

28 June 2021 - Westpac economists have predicted that the official cash rate could rise from August next year, causing a decline in house prices in the final three months of 2022.

Risk of higher OCR this year

25 June 2021 - The strength of the New Zealand economy has heightened the risk of a higher official cash rate by the end of the year, according to ANZ economists.

Interest rate hike expectations grow

21 June 2021 - The recent surge in economic growth has increased the odds of an official cash rate hike in February, according to Kiwibank economists.

ANZ predicts February OCR hike following GDP growth

17 June 2021 - ANZ economists predict the official cash rate will begin to rise in February, after the New Zealand economy roared back into life in the first quarter.

OCR Preview Survey: all eyes on inflation comments

24 May 2021 - Leading economists predict the official cash rate will stay on hold this week, with all eyes on the Reserve Bank's views on inflation and future rate hikes.

Economists react as OCR kept on hold

14 April 2021 - The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold, but said it is prepared to push rates lower if required. Economists predict a stable period of low rates ahead.

Rates could be on hold for four years

13 April 2021 - The Government's housing reforms will cause a fall in the housing market that could delay official cash rate hikes until 2025, according to Westpac economists.

OCR Preview Survey: Rate to hold

12 April 2021 - Economists predict the official cash rate will remain on hold this week, with all eyes on the housing market as the Reserve Bank makes its latest statement.

How housing reforms could impact interest rates

29 March 2021 - The Government's radical housing market reforms could mean lower interest rates for longer, according to Westpac economists.

Challenging times ahead for investors: Westpac

23 March 2021 - The Government’s attempt to skew the housing market away from investors to first home buyers will have a chilling effect on investor demand, says Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod.

Fixing still in borrowers best interests

22 March 2021 - The entire structure of average mortgage rates sits at record lows – but ANZ is warning borrowers nothing lasts forever.

OCR Preview: official cash rate set to hold

22 February 2021 - Economists unanimously agree that the Reserve Bank will leave the official cash rate unchanged this week, according to TMM Online's latest preview survey.

What's the best mortgage strategy?

19 February 2021 - As further official cash rate cuts look less likely, are borrowers better off choosing short or long-term loans? ANZ has released a new report on the the dilemma facing homeowners.

OCR predictions change amid strong data

3 February 2021 - Better-than-expected economic indicators have prompted forecasters to change their predictions for the official cash rate.

Call to risk-weight investor loans

25 January 2021 - Banks should be forced to risk-weight investor mortgages and loans on interest-only terms, according to economists from Kiwibank.

Westpac drops negative OCR call

21 January 2021 - Westpac has dropped its prediction for a negative official cash rate due to the red-hot housing market. 

Why we won't get negative rates

19 January 2021 - ASB has become the latest bank to reverse its forecast for a negative official cash rate.

ANZ predicts fewer OCR cuts

14 January 2021 - ANZ has revised its forecast for the official cash rate, predicting only one cut next year to 0.1%.

Westpac changes OCR forecast

1 December 2020 - Westpac has changed its forecast for the official cash rate, anticipating smaller cuts to the central bank rate early next year.

Is a negative OCR now less likely?

25 November 2020 - Finance Minister Grant Robertson's pleas to the Reserve Bank to control house price inflation could reduce the odds of a negative OCR next year, according to economists.

Why negative rates might not be needed

16 November 2020 - The Reserve Bank's Funding for Lending Programme makes aggressive official cash rate cuts less likely, according to economists. 

Economists react to bank funding programme

11 November 2020 - Economists are divided on whether the Reserve Bank will need to cut the official cash rate further after it launched a new funding programme to push down interest rates. 

OCR preview survey: what will the Reserve Bank do?

9 November 2020 - Economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave the official cash rate unchanged this week, but suggest more support is on the way for lenders, individual...

OCR to remain on hold: economists

9 November 2020 - Economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave the official cash rate unchanged this week, but suggest more support is on the way for lenders, individual borrowers and businesses.

How low could mortgage rates go?

28 October 2020 - With the Reserve Bank poised to offer more support to the economy, ASB economists predict home loan rates will plummet further into the new year.

Weak inflation means negative OCR: Kiwibank

23 October 2020 - Today's lower than expected inflation figures will force the Reserve Bank to make an aggressive 75 basis point OCR cut in February, according to Kiwibank.

The $50 billion idea that will push down home loan rates

23 October 2020 - ANZ economists predict the Reserve Bank's funding for lending programme (FLP), designed to push down interest rates, could hit $50 billion.

Negative OCR still needed - Westpac

20 October 2020 - Despite fears of an overheated housing market, Westpac economists believe the Reserve Bank will still need to lower the official cash rate next year.

Negative official cash rate still needed: Westpac

19 October 2020 - Despite fears of an overheated housing market, Westpac economists believe the Reserve Bank will still need to lower the official cash rate next year. 

RBNZ bank funding programme imminent: reaction

23 September 2020 - The Reserve Bank has hinted its programme to lend directly to retail banks could be ready by the end of the year, as it takes a more dovish tone on the economy.

OCR decision revealed

23 September 2020 - The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold at 0.25%. Here's what the central bank said:

Economy performing better-than-expected: ASB

7 September 2020 - The New Zealand economy is faring better than expected despite the second lockdown in Auckland, according to ASB economists.

Negative OCR would be a mistake: Kiwibank

25 August 2020 - While economists at the big four lenders believe the Reserve Bank will opt for a negative official cash rate next year, Kiwibank analysts believe the move would be a mistake.

BNZ joins rivals with negative OCR forecast

19 August 2020 - BNZ economists have joined the other big four banks in predicting the Reserve Bank will adopt a negative official cash rate.

Negative OCR on the way: ASB and ANZ

18 August 2020 - ASB and ANZ have revised their forecast for the official cash rate and predict we will get negative rates next year. 

OCR on hold but QE expanded to $100 billion

12 August 2020 - Economists have welcomed the expansion of the Reserve Bank's quantitative easing programme, and say a negative official cash rate is more likely than ever following this week's Covid-19 outbreak.

OCR preview: all eyes on quantitative easing; SBS rate cuts

10 August 2020 - Economists say the Reserve Bank will keep the official cash rate on hold next week, but believe it could expand its quantitative easing programme to push...

OCR Preview: All eyes on quantitative easing

10 August 2020 - Economists say the Reserve Bank will keep the official cash rate on hold next week, but believe it could expand its quantitative easing programme to push down interest rates.

Negative OCR in April 2021: Westpac

27 July 2020 - The Reserve Bank will still need to slash the official cash rate to negative territory next year, despite a better-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Westpac economists.

OCR decision revealed

24 June 2020 - The Reserve Bank has kept the official cash rate on hold. Here's what the RBNZ said:

OCR Preview Survey: key things to watch; Kiwibank rate cut

22 June 2020 - Economists expect the Official Cash Rate to remain on hold this week, but say there are key messages to look out for from the Reserve Bank: [READ ON] Another...

OCR Preview Survey: OCR set to remain on hold

22 June 2020 - Economists expect the Official Cash Rate to remain on hold this week, but say the Reserve Bank could talk about negative rates in 2021.

Strong comeback could affect OCR outlook

15 June 2020 - The strong reopening of the New Zealand economy could make the Reserve Bank less likely to slash the official cash rate further, according to Westpac economists.

Reserve Bank calls for lower mortgage rates

20 May 2020 - Reserve Bank deputy governor Geoff Bascand has piled pressure on banks to slash mortgage rates as wholesale borrowing costs fall.

Markets expect negative rates; Licensing applications continue

19 May 2020 - Financial markets have priced in an increased chance of a negative official cash rate after the Reserve Bank mooted the idea last week: [READ ON] Some...

Markets price in negative interest rates

18 May 2020 - Financial markets have priced in an increased chance of a negative official cash rate after the Reserve Bank mooted the idea last week.

OCR reaction: Reserve Bank open to lower, negative rates

13 May 2020 - Economists say the Reserve Bank has left the door open to lower or negative rates, as it kept the official cash rate on hold.

OCR decision revealed

13 May 2020 - The Reserve Bank has kept the Official Cash Rate on hold at its record low of 0.25%. Here's what the RBNZ said:

OCR Preview: Economists predict rate will stay on hold

11 May 2020 - Economists expect the Official Cash Rate will remain on hold this week, but many believe the Reserve Bank will open the door to lower or negative interest rates. 

Markets price in strong chance of 0% OCR

7 May 2020 - Financial markets are betting that the Official Cash Rate will fall to 0% by November, according to analysis from ASB Bank.

Could the OCR drop below 0%?

28 April 2020 - Westpac economists believe the Official Cash Rate will drop into negative territory this year amid the economic turmoil caused by Covid-19.

Emergency OCR cut: economists give their views

16 March 2020 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank will be reluctant to cut the OCR any further after it slashed rates by 75 basis points this morning. 

Mortgage rate drop will be minor: ASB

10 March 2020 - Borrowers will only see "minor" decreases in mortgage rates if the Reserve Bank cuts the official cash rate, according to economists at ASB. 

Will mortgage rates fall much further?

6 March 2020 - An official cash rate cut looks increasing likely amid the Covid-19 outbreak, but economists doubt mortgage rates will drop much further than current levels.

Coronavirus will lead to OCR cut this month: ANZ

2 March 2020 - The coronavirus outbreak could force the Reserve Bank to slash the official cash rate by 50 basis points this month, according to leading economists.

Housing market boom won't last long: Westpac

26 February 2020 - Westpac economists say the recent boom in the housing market won't last much longer due to upward pressure on mortgage rates and a lack of funds in the banking system.

Low rates until 2022

17 February 2020 - ASB economists predict the next OCR tightening cycle will start in early 2022, with interest rates on hold throughout this year and next year.

Rising house prices glossed over in MPS

13 February 2020 - New Zealand’s housing market is rebounding strongly but the Reserve Bank barely mentioned it in Wednesday’s Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). That’s left one economist asking why.

OCR reaction: RBNZ upbeat on outlook

12 February 2020 - Economists say the Reserve Bank struck a positive tone on growth as it kept the OCR on hold, but fear it may have underestimated the impact of the coronavirus.

OCR preview survey: what do economists think?

7 February 2020 - The Official Cash Rate will stay on hold next week, but the Reserve Bank will urge downside caution over the impact of the coronavirus, according to TMM's...

OCR Preview Survey: economists say OCR will stay on hold

7 February 2020 - The official cash rate will stay on hold next week, but the Reserve Bank will urge downside caution over the impact of the coronavirus, according to TMM's OCR Preview Survey.

Could the coronavirus hit the housing market?

30 January 2020 - The coronavirus outbreak in China could impact tourism and economic growth in New Zealand, having a knock-on effect on the official cash rate, according to one economist.

Markets predict OCR to remain at 1%

29 January 2020 - Financial markets are pricing in a reduced chance of further official cash rate cuts this year amid expectations of improved economic growth.

Chances of OCR cut not high: Alexander

19 December 2019 - The odds of a further OCR cut in 2020 are "not high", according to economist Tony Alexander, who believes borrowers should not put all of their focus on "chasing the lowest short-term rate".

Economists revise OCR outlook

16 December 2019 - Leading economists have revised their predictions for the official cash rate next year, predicting less action from the Reserve Bank in the next 12 months.

OCR to trough at 0.75%: ASB

5 December 2019 - ASB has changed its official cash rate forecast and now predicts the Reserve Bank will cut rates by just 25 basis points in 2020.

Mortgage rates may be at cycle low: ASB

18 November 2019 - It is "quite possible" fixed rate mortgages have hit their lowest point in this cycle, according to economists at ASB.

OCR reaction: economists surprised but expect 2020 cut

13 November 2019 - Economists were surprised by the Reserve Bank's decision to keep the official cash rate on hold, but expect the central bank to ease rates next year.

OCR Preview Survey: economists predict a cut

8 November 2019 - TMM Online has conducted a survey ahead of next week's OCR announcement and MPS. Most economists predict the Reserve Bank is likely to cut the...

OCR Preview Survey: Economists tip another cut

7 November 2019 - Economists predict the Reserve Bank is likely to cut the official cash rate again this week – but are far from certain the central bank will pull the trigger.

Markets price 50% chance of OCR cut: BNZ

5 November 2019 - Financial markets are pricing in a 50% chance of an official cash rate cut next week, down from 90% odds just a week ago.

Westpac predicts OCR will be put on hold

31 October 2019 - Westpac economists have broken ranks with rival commentators by predicting the Official Cash Rate will be put on hold next week.

House price rally could reduce odds of OCR cut: Westpac

15 October 2019 - A pickup in the housing market could give the Reserve Bank "pause for thought" over further official cash rate cuts, according to Westpac economists.

Price wars continue with ANZ rate cuts

14 October 2019 - Borrowers are set to enjoy even lower mortgage rates after ANZ slashed its fixed rate options to new lows.

Weak business confidence will lead to OCR cut

10 October 2019 - Weak business confidence numbers will increase the chances of another Official Cash Rate cut next month, say Westpac economists.

ASB: OCR will fall to 0.5%

7 October 2019 - Weak business and consumer confidence will see the Reserve Bank slash the Official Cash Rate to 0.5% by February, according to economists at ASB Bank.

Kiwibank predicts 0.5% OCR cut

1 October 2019 - Kiwibank economists believe the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate to just 0.5%, with the possibility of a major cut in November.

OCR on hold: November cut expected

25 September 2019 - The Reserve Bank has kept the Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1%, but economists predict a cut in November.

Upward pressure on mortgage rates: ANZ

24 September 2019 - Borrowers still face upward pressure on mortgage rates despite a lower-for-longer outlook on the Official Cash Rate, according to economists at ANZ.

OCR Preview: economists predict no change

20 September 2019 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank will hold fire on making further cuts to the Official Cash Rate next week, with a further cut more likely in November.

Expect three more OCR cuts – ANZ

6 September 2019 - Ongoing deterioration of the growth and inflation outlook means that ANZ is predicting that the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 0.25% by May next year.

Slashing OCR has worked, economist says

28 August 2019 - The OCR is low and poised to get lower but Westpac’s chief economist doesn’t believe that means concerns about a negative OCR are warranted.

ASB: Rates may not get much lower

19 August 2019 - Mortgage rates are unlikely to move in "lock-step" with future Official Cash Rate cuts and will only fall "slightly" from current levels, according to economists at ASB Bank. 

Advisers call for servicing test rethink for borrowers

12 August 2019 - Advisers believe banks should adapt their servicing tests for borrowers after the Official Cash Rate plunged to 1%.

Banks slash rates after historic OCR cut

8 August 2019 - Lenders have taken action on fixed and floating rates after the Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate to a record low of 1%. Here's a roundup of the cuts as of Thursday morning:

OCR will fall further: economists react to shock cut

8 August 2019 - The Official Cash Rate could drop to 0.75% or even lower this year, economists say, after the Reserve Bank slashed the OCR by an unprecedented 50 basis points.

Reserve Bank surprises markets with 1% OCR

7 August 2019 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has surprised economists by slashing the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to just 1%.

OCR decision revealed

7 August 2019 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut the Official Cash Rate to a new record low of 1%. Here's why:

Official Cash Rate decision looms; Auckland prices fall

7 August 2019 - No rate cuts this morning, but the Reserve Bank will later make a decision on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate. Economists predict the central bank...

OCR will fall to 0.75%: Kiwibank

5 August 2019 - Kiwibank has changed its forecast for the Official Cash Rate and now “expects” the OCR will drop to 0.75% in this cycle.

Could the Official Cash Rate fall to 0.75%?

30 July 2019 - No rate changes today, but New Zealand banks are making bold predictions about the Official Cash Rate. BNZ believes a cut next week is "almost certain"...

OCR cut almost certain: BNZ

29 July 2019 - The Reserve Bank is “almost certain” to cut the Official Cash Rate to a record new low next week, according to BNZ economists.

Fixed rates to fall further: Westpac

25 July 2019 - Retail fixed interest rates will fall even further this year as the central bank considers "aggressive" cuts, according to Westpac.

Two more OCR cuts this year?

5 July 2019 - No rate changes today, but it looks like rates are only heading in one direction for the rest of the year. After weak business confidence figures, ASB...

Two more OCR cuts this year: ASB

4 July 2019 - ASB bank has accelerated its forecast for further Official Cash Rate cuts amid weak business confidence data.

Westpac predicts house price boom but no more OCR cuts

11 May 2019 - Westpac economists believe this month's Official Cash Rate cut could boost house prices by 7%, but they do not expect further cuts to follow. 

OCR Preview Survey: Economists predict cut

2 May 2019 - A majority of New Zealand economists predict the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate to a new record low of 1.50% next week, according to TMM’s Preview Survey.

Price wars to support property market: CoreLogic

24 April 2019 - Mortgage rate wars will underpin property market growth following a "sluggish" start to the year, according to research firm CoreLogic.

Capital requirements a risk to growth: ANZ

23 April 2019 - The Reserve Bank's proposals to force banks to keep extra capital could be a "significant headwind" to the economy and reduce the availability of credit, according to ANZ economists.

Price war heats up with ASB move

4 April 2019 - Homeloan rates continue to fall in the wake of the Reserve Bank's OCR comments and weak business confidence numbers this week. ASB has slashed its three, four, and five year interest rates, joining rivals in a competitive race for borrowers.

Economists change their mind on next OCR movement

1 April 2019 - Economists believe the Official Cash Rate could be cut as soon as May or August, following the Reserve Bank's comments last week. 

Reserve Bank stuns economists with OCR cut prediction

27 March 2019 - The Reserve Bank has surprised economists by stating the next OCR move is "likely to be down" due to slowing domestic and global growth. 

BNZ back below 4%

25 March 2019 - BNZ has slashed its two year classic mortgage to 3.99%, but owner-occupiers, rather than investors, will benefit from the sub 4% rate.

OCR Preview: caution expected

22 March 2019 - Leading economists do not expect a change to the OCR next week, and predict the central bank will maintain a cautious outlook on the domestic and global economy. 

OCR could go up or down in 2021: RBNZ Governor

13 February 2019 - Inflation concerns have prompted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to push back its forecast for an OCR change to 2021. Governor Adrian Orr reverted to a dovish tone, suggesting "continued supportive monetary policy", and said the next move could be "up or down".

OCR Preview: caution expected from the Reserve Bank

8 February 2019 - Economists do not believe the OCR will change next week, but predict the Reserve Bank will take a cautious stance on future growth, with a number of headwinds for New Zealand and the global economy.

Markets price in 40% chance of OCR cut

15 January 2019 - Interest rate derivatives markets are pricing in a 40% probability the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate this year, amid weakening inflation and slower growth overseas.

ANZ predicts 1% OCR in 2020

20 December 2018 - ANZ has predicted the Official Cash Rate will be cut to just 1% in 2020, as it adopts a more dovish outlook on the New Zealand economy.

Treasury predicts OCR hike in 2020

13 December 2018 - The Treasury has followed the Reserve Bank and pushed back its prediction for the next OCR hike. The Treasury now expects the OCR will tighten from the 2020/2021 financial year, as New Zealand's major institutions forecast a lower-for-longer rate environment.

ASB predicts mild OCR cycle

19 November 2018 - ASB's quarterly outlook for the New Zealand economic predicts "sunny skies ahead", with low rates until the second half of 2020 and a peak of just 2.75% in the next OCR cycle.

Long term house price outlook negative: Westpac

15 November 2018 - Current low interest rates are likely to sustain house price growth in the near term, but rising rates from 2020 onwards will trigger a fall in the market, economists at Westpac have warned.

OCR reaction: cut less likely and rates to stay low

8 November 2018 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank has adopted a slightly more hawkish stance on the OCR, but say the unchanged forecast suggests a continued low interest rate environment.

Inflation to "force" OCR hike

16 October 2018 - The impact of rising petrol prices is likely to extend beyond the petrol pump, according to Kiwibank economists, who say inflation will force the Reserve Bank to lift the OCR six months ahead of schedule.

Today’s OCR statement

27 September 2018 - The Official Cash Rate will stay at 1.75 percent for now, the Reserve Bank has confirmed. Governor Adrian Orr continued to state the next move could be "up or down".

OCR to stay at record low: Preview Survey

21 September 2018 - New Zealand’s top economists predict the Reserve Bank will hold the Official Cash Rate next week,  as the central keeps a close watch on GDP growth and inflation.

Market pricing 50% chance of OCR cut: ANZ

3 September 2018 - The overnight interest rate swap market is pricing in a 50 percent chance of an OCR cut by mid next year, according to ANZ. 

ANZ predicts OCR cut

21 August 2018 - Lender ANZ has reversed its prediction for the OCR rate, predicting the central bank is “more likely” to lower the rate than increase it.

Consumers expect rate rise: ASB

16 August 2018 - Respondents to ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey expect interest rates to go up in the next 12 months, despite increasingly cautious language from the Reserve Bank.

“Real” risk of OCR cut: Westpac

13 August 2018 - Economists at Westpac believe there is a “real” chance the Reserve Bank could cut the OCR rate, following last week’s dovish forecast.

OCR Preview; What's likely to happen next week

3 August 2018 - Kiwi economists believe Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr will sound a cautious note on the economy next week, with little chance of an OCR rate increase,...

OCR preview: Reserve Bank tipped to remain cautious

3 August 2018 - Kiwi economists believe Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr will sound a cautious note on the economy next week, with little chance of an OCR rate increase, and an outside chance of a cut.

OCR words open door for cut

28 June 2018 - Subtle change of tone in this morning’s OCR announcement suggests the Reserve Bank may now be more willing to cut the OCR if need be, commentators say.

OCR to stay on hold

25 June 2018 - Don’t expect to see a change to the OCR this week as economists predict the Reserve Bank’s song will remain the same for a long time.

Construction slump slows GDP

22 June 2018 - A fall in construction activity contributed to a slowdown in New Zealand’s economy in the three months to March.

All eyes on Orr in lead-up to OCR call

4 May 2018 - Thursday’s monetary policy statement (MPS) is the most keenly anticipated Reserve Bank outing in many months – but it’s due to the new Governor, not the OCR outlook.

LVR a “permanent tool”: RBNZ Governor

20 April 2018 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's new governor believes restrictions on loan to value ratios will be a “permanent tool” for the central bank.

It's OCR week. What will happen?

19 March 2018 - On Thursday acting RBNZ governor will make his final OCR announcement before Adrian Orr takes over running the central bank. We asked economists what they...

OCR call takes backseat

16 March 2018 - Changes are looming for the Reserve Bank and that has pushed OCR decisions into the background – despite a pending announcement next week.

Kiwibank changes its OCR forecast

9 March 2018 - Economists at Kiwibank have revised their forecast for the Reserve Bank’s OCR rate hike, changing their prediction from November this year to May 2019.

New Zealand economists divided over OCR

6 March 2018 - Top economists say rate could rise in November — or be cut this year.

Will the OCR move this week? Check out what economists think

5 February 2018 - It's a big week for data with the OCR being one of the stand out announcements coming up. To find out what the economists are thinking we have compiled...

OCR holding pattern to continue

2 February 2018 - Measured restraint will be the tone of the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement next week, with economists unanimously expecting the OCR to stay on hold.

OCR increase pushed out

31 January 2018 - New Zealand’s official cash rate is unlikely to move up until the end of next year, Westpac economists say. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in the December...

Inflation problem for RBNZ

5 December 2017 - If inflation doesn’t pick up by late 2018 interest rate cuts could again be on the cards, according to the Reserve Bank.

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank and interest rates

8 November 2017 - The Reserve Bank leads our news today on two counts. Firstly, the government has released its terms of reference for a review of the Reserve Bank, and...

Time for Normalisation?

6 November 2017 - BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis contemplates the Reserve Bank's next move and suggests maybe it it time for normalisation.

OCR stable . . . for now

3 November 2017 - [OCR Preview] Economists are confident the Reserve Bank won't move the Official Cash Rate off it's historical lows next week, but there is an emerging divergence of views about what will happen in the future now there is a new government in power.

Growth outlook overshadows OCR call

28 September 2017 - New Zealand’s lower economic growth was acknowledged by the Reserve Bank in its OCR statement today – which means there's a chance their next call could be more doveish.

OCR preview: What economists are thinking now

25 September 2017 - While the result of the election is still some way away, it is back to business this week with a Reserve Bank official cash rate announcement on Thursday...

Caution to dictate OCR call this week

25 September 2017 - Uncertainty is bubbling beneath the surface of monetary policy but, despite this, economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave the OCR on hold at 1.75% this week.

Future could hold OCR cuts

6 August 2017 - Think the OCR will stay on hold this week? So do economists – but some also say there is growing scope for the Reserve Bank to cut again.

Verdict in on this week's OCR call

16 June 2017 - Any change to the OCR on Thursday would stun economists who are unanimous in thinking that it will be left firmly on hold.

Focus on tone, not content, of OCR call this week

8 May 2017 - An official cash rate cut this week would come as a major surprise to all economists.

Next to no chance of OCR cut

17 March 2017 - Spotting the difference will be the name of the game in next week’s OCR announcement – with economists across the board agreeing the Reserve Bank will make no changes.

Interest rate risk equally balanced: RBNZ

2 March 2017 - UPDATED: There’s equal probability that the next OCR move could be up or down as the risks around inflation are evenly balanced, the Reserve Bank governor says.

OCR cut not expected

3 February 2017 - It’s a unanimous verdict: economists en masse expect the OCR to stay on hold next week – and for many months after that.

OCR hike to come - later

24 January 2017 - The Reserve Bank’s next OCR move is likely to be up – although it won't be for a while, a new HSBC report says.

OCR hikes on the horizon

21 December 2016 - The OCR has troughed and the risks are now skewed to OCR hikes from the middle of next year, according to one major bank.

Housing market NZ’s biggest domestic risk - RBNZ

8 December 2016 - New Zealand’s highly charged housing market is the biggest domestic economic risk facing the country but no change to the OCR is on the horizon, the Reserve Bank governor says.

Westpac makes substantial change

23 November 2016 - Westpac has made a substantial change to its interest rate forecasts in its just released Economic Overview.  Previously it said that a slowing...

Post-earthquake OCR cut unlikely

18 November 2016 - Don’t expect the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR again following the earthquakes earlier this week - despite the damage and disruption they have caused, economists say.

OCR to hit lowest point this week

4 November 2016 - A historic low is looming for the OCR this week but it could be the trough of the cycle, with most economists predicting the cut will be the last.

Inflation pressure off - slightly

2 November 2016 - Pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep cutting the OCR has been alleviated by the results of the Bank’s latest inflation expectations survey.

Next OCR cut to be the last - ANZ

26 October 2016 - The OCR should trough at 1.75% in November as the Reserve Bank’s next cut is likely to be the last one in the current cycle, ANZ has suggested.

Inflation result won’t stop OCR cut

18 October 2016 - Inflation was slightly above forecasts in the September quarter, but the result is not likely to deter the Reserve Bank from cutting the OCR next month.

Lower OCR around corner

12 October 2016 - More interest rate cuts are probably on the way, the Reserve Bank has signalled.

Expect OCR cut in November - economists

24 August 2016 - Further OCR cuts are looming strongly on the horizon in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s speech yesterday, economists have said.

Quieter times ahead for housing market - ASB

8 August 2016 - New Zealand’s housing market has been on the boil this year, but ASB predicts it is set to cool to a simmer in the year to come.

Little doubt OCR cut coming

5 August 2016 - Rare consensus reigns on the OCR forecast front with economists across the board expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR next week.

Odds on for an August cut

18 July 2016 - Lower than expected inflation has economists predicting another cut to the official cash rate.

How the Reserve Bank makes OCR decisions

18 July 2016 - Assistant Reserve Bank Governor John McDermott has explained how the bank formulates and assess monetary policy and comes to its OCR decisions.

Future OCR cuts dependent on inflation

7 July 2016 - Persistently subdued inflation means a further OCR cut looks likely, but economists are suggesting that the tide may have turned on multiple cuts.

OCR quandary for RBNZ

5 July 2016 - The Reserve Bank has a quandary on its hands as two alternative scenarios it painted for future OCR decisions are both playing out at the same time,

Brexit means August OCR cut likely

27 June 2016 - It’s early days yet but economists agree that Brexit has upped the odds for the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR in August.

OCR calls favour hold

3 June 2016 - Not so long ago most economists were picking that another OCR cut would be announced at next week’s Reserve Bank meeting, but now the mood has changed.

OCR on hold till August - HSBC

30 May 2016 - Strong growth and a booming housing market mean that HSBC now expects the Reserve Bank to hold off on an OCR cut until August.

Budget unlikely to change Reserve Bank views

27 May 2016 - It’s been described as a no surprises, boring Budget, but what might Budget 2016 mean for interest rates?

Tactical guessing game

24 May 2016 - Reasons for the Reserve Bank not to cut the OCR in June are compelling but it’s a guessing game, according to some economists.

Inflation concerns could mean June cut

23 May 2016 - Low inflation expectations are feeding OCR projections of a June cut, but it’s still possible other factors may edge that timing out.

Onwards and upwards

3 May 2016 - New Zealand’s economic growth is set to head upwards over the next couple of years, while interest rates dip further, a new report says.

Odds against OCR cut

22 April 2016 - An OCR cut this week is a live call, but most economists think the Reserve Bank will wait a bit longer before cutting again.

Predicting the RBNZ's next OCR announcement a head scratcher

13 April 2016 - It's just over a fortnight now until the Reserve Bank makes its next Official Cash Rate announcement. After the surprise cut last time and a mixed bag of economic news since then, economists are scratching their heads to try and predict if the OCR will stay at 2.25% or be cut.

More OCR cuts to come - ASB

21 March 2016 - Further OCR cuts will be needed for the Reserve Bank to get the economic stimulation it needs, ASB predicts.

Playing the man not the ball

16 March 2016 - The RBNZ’s approach to communication has faced some criticism following last week’s cut in the OCR, which surprised many bank economists, leaving some confused and others plain flabbergasted. This is not an attempt to defend the RBNZ, but to look at the facts.

OCR cut this week unlikely

7 March 2016 - There’s little doubt further OCR cuts are on the way, but most economists see a cut this week as unlikely.

ANZ changes position on OCR cuts

29 February 2016 - Another major bank has joined the OCR cut camp – with ANZ today predicting two more cuts this year.

ANZ changes its view on OCR cuts

29 February 2016 - ANZ has changed its position on OCR cuts and now expects 25 basis point cuts in both June and September. This will take the OCR to an all-time low of 2...

Room for OCR cuts - English

26 February 2016 - Reserve Bank still has room to move and cut the OCR if it needs to, finance minister Bill English says. Read here.  ...

A test of inflation targeting credibility?

25 February 2016 - Recent inflation expectation surveys create a real headache for the Reserve Bank, Harbour Asset Management director of fixed interest Christian Hawkesby says.

Slow growth expected

16 February 2016 - ASB predicts a a slow start to 2016 for the economy, which strengthens the case for further cuts to the OCR. Read here. ...

Dropping rates should boost slow growth

16 February 2016 - There will be a slow start to 2016 for New Zealand’s economy – which adds to the case for further OCR cuts, according to ASB.

Expect lower mortgage rates in six months: Stephens

15 February 2016 - Home loan interest rates are likely to be lower in six months’ time than they are today, Westpac’s chief economist says.

Forecasts not commitment - RBNZ

5 February 2016 - Don’t mistake transparency and regular guidance as commitment to a certain policy path, the Reserve Bank warns. Read here.  ...

OCR cut outlook shifts

4 February 2016 - Views on the prospect of an OCR cut have shifted following the Reserve Bank governor’s speech and the release of new labour data yesterday.

RBNZ governor: Immediate cuts not the way to go

4 February 2016 - Responding to low inflation with immediate interest rate cuts is not the way to go, the Reserve Bank says. Read here.  ...

NZ economic outlook downgraded

27 January 2016 - Weaker prices for agricultural exports have led Fitch Ratings to revise New Zealand’s growth outlook down.

No cuts predicted for OCR this week

25 January 2016 - Inflation forecasts are the key theme in economists’ predictions for Thursday’s official cash rate call from the Reserve Bank. Economists share their...

OCR cuts to come – but not now

25 January 2016 - Inflation forecasts are the key theme in economists’ predictions for Thursday’s official cash rate call from the Reserve Bank.

Mixed predictions for OCR movement

4 December 2015 - Expectations of a cut to the OCR next week are riding high – although some economists have divergent theories. Read full story here.  ...

Odds are on an OCR cut

4 December 2015 - Expectations of a cut to the OCR next week are riding high – although some economists have divergent theories.

More OCR cuts to come

16 November 2015 - Weakness in the dairy sector means OCR cuts are on the way, ASB says.

ANZ says no OCR cuts for Christmas

3 November 2015 - While most economists think there will be an OCR cut at Christmas, ANZ takes a different view. Read On ...

ANZ takes contrary view on next OCR hike

3 November 2015 - While most economists are predicting the Reserve Bank will next cut the Official Cash Rate in December, ANZ has a different view. Here's why.

No cut expected for OCR

23 October 2015 - Change to the official cash rate (OCR) is unlikely this month although some economists think it should be cut, a survey reveals.

More OCR cuts likely – despite housing concerns

14 October 2015 - Global economic concerns mean more “easing” of the OCR is likely, even though this could further fuel the already-hot housing market, the Reserve Bank Governor has said.

Further OCR cuts to come

10 September 2015 - Mortgage rates may yet have further to fall, after the Reserve Bank’s cutting of the OCR to 2.75% today.

Economists predict OCR cut

4 September 2015 - Economists are unanimously expecting the official cash rate to be cut next week.

OCR reviewed less often

26 August 2015 - New Zealand’s official cash rate will be reviewed less often in coming years.

More OCR cuts are on the way - RBNZ

29 July 2015 - The Reserve Bank has confirmed that further OCR cuts are likely to be needed.

No surprises in Reserve Bank's move

23 July 2015 - Little surprise followed the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut this morning - and further cuts are now generally expected to come this year.

OCR cut to 3%

23 July 2015 - New Zealand's softening economic outlook and low inflation has led the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR to 3% today.  

Can you feel the rate cut coming?

20 July 2015 - The economists can. Here are their views on this week's OCR announcement. [Read on] ...

OCR cut on the cards this week

17 July 2015 - Predictions of multiple OCR cuts by the end of the year are coming thick and fast - with the next one expected on Thursday.

Falling business confidence points to... OCR cuts

7 July 2015 - A sharp decline in business confidence has led ASB to formally join the economists predicting three more OCR cuts by the end of the year.

Westpac calls for lots of OCR cuts

7 July 2015 - The OCR could get as loe as 2.50% this year, Westpac predicts. Read On ...

Westpac predicts three more OCR cuts this year

6 July 2015 - Another three OCR cuts are on the way, thanks to darkening economic clouds, according to one of the major banks.

Falling dairy prices to prompt OCR cuts

2 July 2015 - OCR cut predictions have taken a big step up following the latest fall in dairy prices.

Under par GDP leads to OCR cut calls

19 June 2015 - Three of the major banks are now predicting a further cut to the OCR in July.

RESIMAC says bring it on

8 June 2015 - Well, not exactly. Those are my words after seeing the non-bank lender had put out one of the sharpest variable rates today. Check it out here. As it is...

One economist calls for OCR cut this week; others say wait

8 June 2015 - Expect the Reserve Bank to leave the OCR unchanged next week – despite many recent forecasts that cuts are likely this year.

Long rates up, short rates to fall?

12 May 2015 - TSB's 10-year fixed rate has risen slightly from 5.89% to 5.95%. While this rate at the long end of the curve has risen there could soon be downward pressure...

More banks call for OCR cuts

12 May 2015 - ANZ and Westpac are the latest banks to predict that the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) this year.

ASB changes tune on OCR

7 May 2015 - ASB is now predicting that the Reserve Bank will cut the official cash rate two times this year. Here is why it thinks cuts are coming. ...

ASB now calling for two OCR rate cuts

7 May 2015 - ASB economists have changed their view on the OCR and gone from a 50:50 chance of an interest rate cut to predicting the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate two times this year.

RBNZ rate cut unlikely – for now

24 April 2015 - With the Reserve Bank’s next Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement due on Thursday, a survey of economists reveals many believe a downward bias is creeping into the RBNZ’s thinking.

No surprises expected in OCR this week, but plenty to look for

9 March 2015 - No surprises are expected in the Reserve Bank’s upcoming official cash rate (OCR) and monetary policy statements this Thursday.

Rate hike on, but not a done deal

18 July 2014 - You can expect the Reserve Bank to hike its official cash rate next week, and floating rates will follow suit. However, what the central bank says and where interest rates will go after next week is less certain.

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 5.35 4.49 5.25 5.55
ANZ 5.54 5.15 5.85 6.15
ANZ Blueprint to Build 2.78 - - -
ANZ Special - 4.55 5.25 5.55
ASB Bank 5.35 4.49 5.25 5.55
Avanti Finance 5.45 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.45 - - -
Bluestone 5.29 7.49 7.59 -
BNZ - Classic - 4.55 5.25 5.45
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.55 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.55 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.55 5.35 5.94 5.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.55 - - -
CFML Loans ▲6.45 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 5.40 6.14 6.40
China Construction Bank Special - 4.45 5.19 5.45
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 4.70 5.20 -
Heartland Bank - Online 4.00 3.85 4.70 4.84
Heretaunga Building Society 5.95 4.80 5.50 -
HSBC Premier 5.49 4.39 5.15 5.39
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.25 4.29 5.09 5.35
Kainga Ora 5.43 4.57 5.58 5.85
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 5.00 5.55 6.19 6.39
Kiwibank - Offset 5.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special 5.00 4.55 5.19 5.39
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.95 4.95 5.85 -
Pepper Essential 3.44 - - -
Resimac 4.59 5.60 6.16 6.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank 5.29 4.69 5.35 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 4.85 4.99
Select Home Loans 4.09 4.29 4.86 5.09
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▲4.19 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.45 ▲4.29 5.19 5.45
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.45 ▲4.79 5.69 5.95
TSB Bank 5.59 5.14 ▼5.79 6.15
TSB Special 4.79 4.34 ▼4.99 5.35
Unity 5.65 4.80 5.50 -
Wairarapa Building Society 5.24 4.55 5.20 -
Westpac 5.54 5.09 5.79 6.09
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 5.54 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.49 5.19 5.49
Median 5.45 4.55 5.25 5.52

Last updated: 19 May 2022 10:42am

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