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Articles tagged with 'OCR forecasts'

ASB predicts mild OCR cycle

19 November 2018 - ASB's quarterly outlook for the New Zealand economic predicts "sunny skies ahead", with low rates until the second half of 2020 and a peak of just 2.75% in the next OCR cycle.

Long term house price outlook negative: Westpac

15 November 2018 - Current low interest rates are likely to sustain house price growth in the near term, but rising rates from 2020 onwards will trigger a fall in the market, economists at Westpac have warned.

OCR reaction: cut less likely and rates to stay low

8 November 2018 - Economists believe the Reserve Bank has adopted a slightly more hawkish stance on the OCR, but say the unchanged forecast suggests a continued low interest rate environment.

Inflation to "force" OCR hike

16 October 2018 - The impact of rising petrol prices is likely to extend beyond the petrol pump, according to Kiwibank economists, who say inflation will force the Reserve Bank to lift the OCR six months ahead of schedule.

Today’s OCR statement

27 September 2018 - The Official Cash Rate will stay at 1.75 percent for now, the Reserve Bank has confirmed. Governor Adrian Orr continued to state the next move could be "up or down".

OCR to stay at record low: Preview Survey

21 September 2018 - New Zealand’s top economists predict the Reserve Bank will hold the Official Cash Rate next week,  as the central keeps a close watch on GDP growth and inflation.

Market pricing 50% chance of OCR cut: ANZ

3 September 2018 - The overnight interest rate swap market is pricing in a 50 percent chance of an OCR cut by mid next year, according to ANZ. 

ANZ predicts OCR cut

21 August 2018 - Lender ANZ has reversed its prediction for the OCR rate, predicting the central bank is “more likely” to lower the rate than increase it.

Consumers expect rate rise: ASB

16 August 2018 - Respondents to ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey expect interest rates to go up in the next 12 months, despite increasingly cautious language from the Reserve Bank.

“Real” risk of OCR cut: Westpac

13 August 2018 - Economists at Westpac believe there is a “real” chance the Reserve Bank could cut the OCR rate, following last week’s dovish forecast.

OCR Preview; What's likely to happen next week

3 August 2018 - Kiwi economists believe Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr will sound a cautious note on the economy next week, with little chance of an OCR rate increase,...

OCR preview: Reserve Bank tipped to remain cautious

3 August 2018 - Kiwi economists believe Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr will sound a cautious note on the economy next week, with little chance of an OCR rate increase, and an outside chance of a cut.

OCR words open door for cut

28 June 2018 - Subtle change of tone in this morning’s OCR announcement suggests the Reserve Bank may now be more willing to cut the OCR if need be, commentators say.

OCR to stay on hold

25 June 2018 - Don’t expect to see a change to the OCR this week as economists predict the Reserve Bank’s song will remain the same for a long time.

Construction slump slows GDP

22 June 2018 - A fall in construction activity contributed to a slowdown in New Zealand’s economy in the three months to March.

All eyes on Orr in lead-up to OCR call

4 May 2018 - Thursday’s monetary policy statement (MPS) is the most keenly anticipated Reserve Bank outing in many months – but it’s due to the new Governor, not the OCR outlook.

LVR a “permanent tool”: RBNZ Governor

20 April 2018 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's new governor believes restrictions on loan to value ratios will be a “permanent tool” for the central bank.

It's OCR week. What will happen?

19 March 2018 - On Thursday acting RBNZ governor will make his final OCR announcement before Adrian Orr takes over running the central bank. We asked economists what they...

OCR call takes backseat

16 March 2018 - Changes are looming for the Reserve Bank and that has pushed OCR decisions into the background – despite a pending announcement next week.

Kiwibank changes its OCR forecast

9 March 2018 - Economists at Kiwibank have revised their forecast for the Reserve Bank’s OCR rate hike, changing their prediction from November this year to May 2019.

New Zealand economists divided over OCR

6 March 2018 - Top economists say rate could rise in November — or be cut this year.

Will the OCR move this week? Check out what economists think

5 February 2018 - It's a big week for data with the OCR being one of the stand out announcements coming up. To find out what the economists are thinking we have compiled...

OCR holding pattern to continue

2 February 2018 - Measured restraint will be the tone of the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement next week, with economists unanimously expecting the OCR to stay on hold.

OCR increase pushed out

31 January 2018 - New Zealand’s official cash rate is unlikely to move up until the end of next year, Westpac economists say. Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in the December...

Inflation problem for RBNZ

5 December 2017 - If inflation doesn’t pick up by late 2018 interest rate cuts could again be on the cards, according to the Reserve Bank.

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank and interest rates

8 November 2017 - The Reserve Bank leads our news today on two counts. Firstly, the government has released its terms of reference for a review of the Reserve Bank, and...

Time for Normalisation?

6 November 2017 - BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis contemplates the Reserve Bank's next move and suggests maybe it it time for normalisation.

OCR stable . . . for now

3 November 2017 - [OCR Preview] Economists are confident the Reserve Bank won't move the Official Cash Rate off it's historical lows next week, but there is an emerging divergence of views about what will happen in the future now there is a new government in power.

Growth outlook overshadows OCR call

28 September 2017 - New Zealand’s lower economic growth was acknowledged by the Reserve Bank in its OCR statement today – which means there's a chance their next call could be more doveish.

OCR preview: What economists are thinking now

25 September 2017 - While the result of the election is still some way away, it is back to business this week with a Reserve Bank official cash rate announcement on Thursday...

Caution to dictate OCR call this week

25 September 2017 - Uncertainty is bubbling beneath the surface of monetary policy but, despite this, economists expect the Reserve Bank to leave the OCR on hold at 1.75% this week.

Future could hold OCR cuts

6 August 2017 - Think the OCR will stay on hold this week? So do economists – but some also say there is growing scope for the Reserve Bank to cut again.

Verdict in on this week's OCR call

16 June 2017 - Any change to the OCR on Thursday would stun economists who are unanimous in thinking that it will be left firmly on hold.

Focus on tone, not content, of OCR call this week

8 May 2017 - An official cash rate cut this week would come as a major surprise to all economists.

Next to no chance of OCR cut

17 March 2017 - Spotting the difference will be the name of the game in next week’s OCR announcement – with economists across the board agreeing the Reserve Bank will make no changes.

Interest rate risk equally balanced: RBNZ

2 March 2017 - UPDATED: There’s equal probability that the next OCR move could be up or down as the risks around inflation are evenly balanced, the Reserve Bank governor says.

OCR cut not expected

3 February 2017 - It’s a unanimous verdict: economists en masse expect the OCR to stay on hold next week – and for many months after that.

OCR hike to come - later

24 January 2017 - The Reserve Bank’s next OCR move is likely to be up – although it won't be for a while, a new HSBC report says.

OCR hikes on the horizon

21 December 2016 - The OCR has troughed and the risks are now skewed to OCR hikes from the middle of next year, according to one major bank.

Housing market NZ’s biggest domestic risk - RBNZ

8 December 2016 - New Zealand’s highly charged housing market is the biggest domestic economic risk facing the country but no change to the OCR is on the horizon, the Reserve Bank governor says.

Westpac makes substantial change

23 November 2016 - Westpac has made a substantial change to its interest rate forecasts in its just released Economic Overview.  Previously it said that a slowing...

Post-earthquake OCR cut unlikely

18 November 2016 - Don’t expect the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR again following the earthquakes earlier this week - despite the damage and disruption they have caused, economists say.

OCR to hit lowest point this week

4 November 2016 - A historic low is looming for the OCR this week but it could be the trough of the cycle, with most economists predicting the cut will be the last.

Inflation pressure off - slightly

2 November 2016 - Pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep cutting the OCR has been alleviated by the results of the Bank’s latest inflation expectations survey.

Next OCR cut to be the last - ANZ

26 October 2016 - The OCR should trough at 1.75% in November as the Reserve Bank’s next cut is likely to be the last one in the current cycle, ANZ has suggested.

Inflation result won’t stop OCR cut

18 October 2016 - Inflation was slightly above forecasts in the September quarter, but the result is not likely to deter the Reserve Bank from cutting the OCR next month.

Lower OCR around corner

12 October 2016 - More interest rate cuts are probably on the way, the Reserve Bank has signalled.

Expect OCR cut in November - economists

24 August 2016 - Further OCR cuts are looming strongly on the horizon in the wake of the Reserve Bank’s speech yesterday, economists have said.

Quieter times ahead for housing market - ASB

8 August 2016 - New Zealand’s housing market has been on the boil this year, but ASB predicts it is set to cool to a simmer in the year to come.

Little doubt OCR cut coming

5 August 2016 - Rare consensus reigns on the OCR forecast front with economists across the board expecting the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR next week.

Odds on for an August cut

18 July 2016 - Lower than expected inflation has economists predicting another cut to the official cash rate.

How the Reserve Bank makes OCR decisions

18 July 2016 - Assistant Reserve Bank Governor John McDermott has explained how the bank formulates and assess monetary policy and comes to its OCR decisions.

Future OCR cuts dependent on inflation

7 July 2016 - Persistently subdued inflation means a further OCR cut looks likely, but economists are suggesting that the tide may have turned on multiple cuts.

OCR quandary for RBNZ

5 July 2016 - The Reserve Bank has a quandary on its hands as two alternative scenarios it painted for future OCR decisions are both playing out at the same time,

Brexit means August OCR cut likely

27 June 2016 - It’s early days yet but economists agree that Brexit has upped the odds for the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR in August.

OCR calls favour hold

3 June 2016 - Not so long ago most economists were picking that another OCR cut would be announced at next week’s Reserve Bank meeting, but now the mood has changed.

OCR on hold till August - HSBC

30 May 2016 - Strong growth and a booming housing market mean that HSBC now expects the Reserve Bank to hold off on an OCR cut until August.

Budget unlikely to change Reserve Bank views

27 May 2016 - It’s been described as a no surprises, boring Budget, but what might Budget 2016 mean for interest rates?

Tactical guessing game

24 May 2016 - Reasons for the Reserve Bank not to cut the OCR in June are compelling but it’s a guessing game, according to some economists.

Inflation concerns could mean June cut

23 May 2016 - Low inflation expectations are feeding OCR projections of a June cut, but it’s still possible other factors may edge that timing out.

Onwards and upwards

3 May 2016 - New Zealand’s economic growth is set to head upwards over the next couple of years, while interest rates dip further, a new report says.

Odds against OCR cut

22 April 2016 - An OCR cut this week is a live call, but most economists think the Reserve Bank will wait a bit longer before cutting again.

Predicting the RBNZ's next OCR announcement a head scratcher

13 April 2016 - It's just over a fortnight now until the Reserve Bank makes its next Official Cash Rate announcement. After the surprise cut last time and a mixed bag of economic news since then, economists are scratching their heads to try and predict if the OCR will stay at 2.25% or be cut.

More OCR cuts to come - ASB

21 March 2016 - Further OCR cuts will be needed for the Reserve Bank to get the economic stimulation it needs, ASB predicts.

Playing the man not the ball

16 March 2016 - The RBNZ’s approach to communication has faced some criticism following last week’s cut in the OCR, which surprised many bank economists, leaving some confused and others plain flabbergasted. This is not an attempt to defend the RBNZ, but to look at the facts.

OCR cut this week unlikely

7 March 2016 - There’s little doubt further OCR cuts are on the way, but most economists see a cut this week as unlikely.

ANZ changes position on OCR cuts

29 February 2016 - Another major bank has joined the OCR cut camp – with ANZ today predicting two more cuts this year.

ANZ changes its view on OCR cuts

29 February 2016 - ANZ has changed its position on OCR cuts and now expects 25 basis point cuts in both June and September. This will take the OCR to an all-time low of 2...

Room for OCR cuts - English

26 February 2016 - Reserve Bank still has room to move and cut the OCR if it needs to, finance minister Bill English says. Read here.  ...

A test of inflation targeting credibility?

25 February 2016 - Recent inflation expectation surveys create a real headache for the Reserve Bank, Harbour Asset Management director of fixed interest Christian Hawkesby says.

Slow growth expected

16 February 2016 - ASB predicts a a slow start to 2016 for the economy, which strengthens the case for further cuts to the OCR. Read here. ...

Dropping rates should boost slow growth

16 February 2016 - There will be a slow start to 2016 for New Zealand’s economy – which adds to the case for further OCR cuts, according to ASB.

Expect lower mortgage rates in six months: Stephens

15 February 2016 - Home loan interest rates are likely to be lower in six months’ time than they are today, Westpac’s chief economist says.

Forecasts not commitment - RBNZ

5 February 2016 - Don’t mistake transparency and regular guidance as commitment to a certain policy path, the Reserve Bank warns. Read here.  ...

OCR cut outlook shifts

4 February 2016 - Views on the prospect of an OCR cut have shifted following the Reserve Bank governor’s speech and the release of new labour data yesterday.

RBNZ governor: Immediate cuts not the way to go

4 February 2016 - Responding to low inflation with immediate interest rate cuts is not the way to go, the Reserve Bank says. Read here.  ...

NZ economic outlook downgraded

27 January 2016 - Weaker prices for agricultural exports have led Fitch Ratings to revise New Zealand’s growth outlook down.

No cuts predicted for OCR this week

25 January 2016 - Inflation forecasts are the key theme in economists’ predictions for Thursday’s official cash rate call from the Reserve Bank. Economists share their...

OCR cuts to come – but not now

25 January 2016 - Inflation forecasts are the key theme in economists’ predictions for Thursday’s official cash rate call from the Reserve Bank.

Mixed predictions for OCR movement

4 December 2015 - Expectations of a cut to the OCR next week are riding high – although some economists have divergent theories. Read full story here.  ...

Odds are on an OCR cut

4 December 2015 - Expectations of a cut to the OCR next week are riding high – although some economists have divergent theories.

More OCR cuts to come

16 November 2015 - Weakness in the dairy sector means OCR cuts are on the way, ASB says.

ANZ says no OCR cuts for Christmas

3 November 2015 - While most economists think there will be an OCR cut at Christmas, ANZ takes a different view. Read On ...

ANZ takes contrary view on next OCR hike

3 November 2015 - While most economists are predicting the Reserve Bank will next cut the Official Cash Rate in December, ANZ has a different view. Here's why.

No cut expected for OCR

23 October 2015 - Change to the official cash rate (OCR) is unlikely this month although some economists think it should be cut, a mortgage.co.nz survey reveals.

More OCR cuts likely – despite housing concerns

14 October 2015 - Global economic concerns mean more “easing” of the OCR is likely, even though this could further fuel the already-hot housing market, the Reserve Bank Governor has said.

Further OCR cuts to come

10 September 2015 - Mortgage rates may yet have further to fall, after the Reserve Bank’s cutting of the OCR to 2.75% today.

Economists predict OCR cut

4 September 2015 - Economists are unanimously expecting the official cash rate to be cut next week.

OCR reviewed less often

26 August 2015 - New Zealand’s official cash rate will be reviewed less often in coming years.

More OCR cuts are on the way - RBNZ

29 July 2015 - The Reserve Bank has confirmed that further OCR cuts are likely to be needed.

No surprises in Reserve Bank's move

23 July 2015 - Little surprise followed the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut this morning - and further cuts are now generally expected to come this year.

OCR cut to 3%

23 July 2015 - New Zealand's softening economic outlook and low inflation has led the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR to 3% today.  

Can you feel the rate cut coming?

20 July 2015 - The economists can. Here are their views on this week's OCR announcement. [Read on] ...

OCR cut on the cards this week

17 July 2015 - Predictions of multiple OCR cuts by the end of the year are coming thick and fast - with the next one expected on Thursday.

Falling business confidence points to... OCR cuts

7 July 2015 - A sharp decline in business confidence has led ASB to formally join the economists predicting three more OCR cuts by the end of the year.

Westpac calls for lots of OCR cuts

7 July 2015 - The OCR could get as loe as 2.50% this year, Westpac predicts. Read On ...

Westpac predicts three more OCR cuts this year

6 July 2015 - Another three OCR cuts are on the way, thanks to darkening economic clouds, according to one of the major banks.

Falling dairy prices to prompt OCR cuts

2 July 2015 - OCR cut predictions have taken a big step up following the latest fall in dairy prices.

Under par GDP leads to OCR cut calls

19 June 2015 - Three of the major banks are now predicting a further cut to the OCR in July.

RESIMAC says bring it on

8 June 2015 - Well, not exactly. Those are my words after seeing the non-bank lender had put out one of the sharpest variable rates today. Check it out here. As it is...

One economist calls for OCR cut this week; others say wait

8 June 2015 - Expect the Reserve Bank to leave the OCR unchanged next week – despite many recent forecasts that cuts are likely this year.

Long rates up, short rates to fall?

12 May 2015 - TSB's 10-year fixed rate has risen slightly from 5.89% to 5.95%. While this rate at the long end of the curve has risen there could soon be downward pressure...

More banks call for OCR cuts

12 May 2015 - ANZ and Westpac are the latest banks to predict that the Reserve Bank will cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) this year.

ASB changes tune on OCR

7 May 2015 - ASB is now predicting that the Reserve Bank will cut the official cash rate two times this year. Here is why it thinks cuts are coming. ...

ASB now calling for two OCR rate cuts

7 May 2015 - ASB economists have changed their view on the OCR and gone from a 50:50 chance of an interest rate cut to predicting the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate two times this year.

RBNZ rate cut unlikely – for now

24 April 2015 - With the Reserve Bank’s next Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement due on Thursday, a mortgagerates.co.nz survey of economists reveals many believe a downward bias is creeping into the RBNZ’s thinking.

No surprises expected in OCR this week, but plenty to look for

9 March 2015 - No surprises are expected in the Reserve Bank’s upcoming official cash rate (OCR) and monetary policy statements this Thursday.

Rate hike on, but not a done deal

18 July 2014 - You can expect the Reserve Bank to hike its official cash rate next week, and floating rates will follow suit. However, what the central bank says and where interest rates will go after next week is less certain.

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.79 ▼4.45 ▼4.79 4.99
ANZ Special - ▼3.95 ▼4.29 4.49
ASB Bank 5.80 ▼4.44 4.69 ▲4.89
ASB Bank Special - ▼3.95 4.29 ▲4.49
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.50 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.95 - - -
BNZ - Special - 4.15 ▼3.99 4.49
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.90 4.69 4.79 4.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.90 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 5.20 5.25 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.70 4.85 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.80 4.69 4.79 4.79
HSBC Premier 5.89 3.99 4.19 4.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - 3.85 - -
HSBC Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ICBC 5.80 4.59 4.69 5.09
Kiwibank 5.80 4.55 4.69 4.99
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.80 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.05 4.19 4.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 6.10 5.10 5.45 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.94 5.30
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.89 4.85 5.05 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 3.95 4.49
Sovereign 5.90 ▼4.45 4.69 ▲4.89
Sovereign Special - ▼3.95 4.29 ▲4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.75 ▼4.10 4.35 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.75 ▼4.60 4.85 4.99
TSB Bank 5.80 ▼4.45 4.69 4.99
TSB Special - ▼3.95 4.19 4.49
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.95 4.69 4.79 5.19
Westpac - Offset 5.95 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼3.95 4.29 4.49
Median 5.89 4.45 4.69 4.79

Last updated: 15 November 2018 10:05am

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