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Rental market turning on landlords

The slump in the housing market is making it difficult for landlords to find good tenants.

Friday, July 22nd 2022, 10:22AM 4 Comments

by Sally Lindsay

As many buyers are not getting the sales results they want they have taken their homes off the market and put them into the rental pool.

They have become “accidental landlords” and are contributing to a rental glut that is tipping the market in favour of renters.

For example, in Wellington central over a matter of weeks the rental market has gone from a shortage of homes to now an oversupply and not enough tenants.

The city is awash with rentals as people put their properties into the pool rather than sell at lower prices than they expect. Listings have increased 50% from this time last year and are hovering at about 700-800 for sale.

A couple of months ago it was closer to 1,000 listings compared to 400 at Christmas and by taking their houses off the market they have caused a glut of rentals with no corresponding glut of tenants.

A sizeable number of rentals are sitting empty, although landlords have dropped rents. Solid, well maintained properties that have in the past been attractive to tenants have sat empty for three months.

Property management companies say tenants in good rentals are staying put and there are just not enough other good tenants around.

It is an extremely tough market, particularly for landlords who have mortgages and increasing costs associated with being an investor to pay.” 

Independent economist Tony Alexander says this has implications for rent. In his latest survey with property management company Crockers, it found more landlords were finding it hard to get good tenants than found it easy – the weakest result ever found by the survey since it started a year ago.

“The rent implications are one of the early things which will soon start feeding into a scaling back of inflation forecasts in coming months and solidify a view of mortgage rates for most fixed terms being at or near their cyclical peaks,” says Alexander.

He says the market is not quite there yet. “People are fixating on the level of the cost of living annual change now – not where it is headed. Their views and their emotions are backward looking, not forward.”

CoreLogic research head Nick Goodall says the flow of properties back into the rental market is a predictable occurrence, although it had happened faster than he was expecting. “Landlords could face challenges as they faced inflation and lower rental income.

“Landlords should be doing their finances, and working out whether they could afford to hold on to their rentals if rents fell, especially as they will progressively lose the ability to deduct interest payments from rental earnings for tax purposes over the next few years.

Goodall is not expecting short-term capital growth to come back any time soon, so it’s definitely going to make it a much tighter financial position for landlords

Investors sniffing around

Meanwhile, Alexander says at the margin some investors are showing increased interest in buying properties again.

He says one source of evidence for this comes from his monthly survey of real estate agents alongside REINZ.

“The gross percent of agents saying that investors looking to buy because they hope to get a bargain has risen to a two-year high of 45% from 40% in June and 34% at the start of the year.” He says, though, this is not the same thing as saying these investors expect prices to rise.

Alexander says there is definitely not a widespread trend of investors coming out of the woodwork.

“There are signs that some are willing to buy in the next few months while the market is firmly in their favour if the political polls suggest a good chance of National winning next year.”

National has said it will fully restore deductibility of interest expenses and take the brightline test back to two years.

Tags: rental market

« Landlords should be focusing on higher yieldsRenters making demands of property managers »

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Comments from our readers

On 21 July 2022 at 11:00 pm Vicki Wallace said:
Interesting reading - have been saying this for some time that a glut of rentals & lack of "good" tenants would come about. Multiple reasons - people not selling (as above) & turning properties into rentals - Airbnb's not as bouyant as they were due to lack of Intl market - many new builds (townhouses) available for rent attracting the best tenants, leaving older but still good quality properties not as attractive to renters - emphasis on lack of housing ? So many still in emergency housing but properties empty? Doesn't this tell the GOVT something major? We have a huge sector of the tenant population that are unhouseable in the private market - this is not a housing crisis, it is a social crisis. Landlords would rather have an empty house than house certain tenants - what is being done about this to incentivise a private owner to rent to someone that really needs a home? Wouldn't govt be better to fund some sort of rental guarantee than have to be building so much social housing at high cost to taxpayers & paying moteliers - something amiss here? Too many suggestions & ideas to cover off here....but many people making decisions not understanding the full complexity of the housing/rental market from all perspectives.
On 22 July 2022 at 11:12 pm Steve Judge said:
This labour govt is aiming to be the only landlord in the country. Thousands in Motels, surely it would be better to put the people in motels into private accomodation.

A 3 bedroom house is surely better than a 1 bedroom motel for them. Even if they cant afford the rent the govt could susidise the rent, they do that now for benaficeries now anyway?

So instead of spending millions $$ on motels, put them into the empty houses. If they wreck it then thats the last one they get !
On 24 July 2022 at 10:01 am Peter Lewis said:
The reality is that many (most?) owner-occupied homes do not measure up to healthy homes requirements in order to be legally rentable.
Even brand new fully council-compliant homes will need additional - and possibly expensive - extra work to comply.
This work can easily cost several thousand dollars, and then restoring the property back to saleable condition after a year or three when tenants have done their worse will invariably add extra costs.
Thus I think that the possibility of a flood of ex-OO houses moving into the rental market is actually exaggerated.
On 26 July 2022 at 12:10 am John Edwards said:
Great comments above. 3 years ago we sold the last of our [8] residential rentals in Northland. Only 2 properties, rented by couples in their 60's, were treated with respect. The others needed between $2 k and $11k of tidy up before re-letting, property management was not up to par and Tribunals, a waste of time.

Selection of tenants is no longer straight forward. eg. Nice couple 30ish checked out well. The people who moved in were not desirable, 18 months to remove them and $11k repairs.

If landlords have to rent to other than "good" tenants the government should have a, make good guarantee , repairs being cheaper than motel housing in the long term.

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 6.35 5.25 5.45 5.99
ANZ 6.34 5.59 6.05 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build - - - -
ANZ Special - 4.99 5.45 5.69
ASB Bank 6.35 ▼4.99 5.45 5.69
Avanti Finance 6.65 - - -
Basecorp Finance 7.25 - - -
Bluestone 6.89 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 4.95 5.39 5.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.39 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 6.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 6.39 5.55 5.99 6.29
BNZ - TotalMoney 6.39 - - -
CFML Loans 7.25 - - -
China Construction Bank - 5.35 5.80 5.99
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.89 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.25 4.99 5.39 ▼5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.25 5.49 5.89 ▼6.19
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 5.35 5.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 4.60 ▼4.79 ▼5.15 ▼5.14
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Heretaunga Building Society 6.50 5.60 6.00 -
HSBC Premier 6.34 5.09 5.34 5.59
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 6.00 ▼4.79 5.15 ▼5.69
Kainga Ora 5.85 5.31 5.58 5.97
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 6.00 5.95 6.45 ▼6.59
Kiwibank - Offset 6.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.95 5.45 ▼5.69
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Nelson Building Society ▲6.95 5.55 6.15 -
Pepper Money 5.29 - - -
Resimac 5.59 6.54 6.44 6.98
SBS Bank 6.29 ▼5.39 ▼5.79 5.99
SBS Bank Special - ▼4.89 ▼5.29 5.49
Select Home Loans 6.89 - - -
TSB Bank 7.05 5.65 6.09 6.39
TSB Special 6.25 4.85 5.29 5.59
Unity 5.65 4.95 5.55 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.49 5.55 6.15 -
Westforce credit union - Special - 5.35 5.85 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westforce credit union - Standard 5.85 6.05 6.55 -
Westpac 6.39 5.55 6.05 6.29
Westpac - Offset 6.39 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.95 5.45 5.69
Median 6.34 5.33 5.79 5.83

Last updated: 15 August 2022 8:19am

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