tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Wednesday, February 21st, 7:01PM

Mortgages

rss
Latest Headlines

OCR assumptions don’t add up

Economist Tony Alexander doesn’t believe the RBNZ will keep the OCR at 5.50% or higher through to the middle of 2025, even though the central bank is forecasting a possible further hike next year.

Friday, December 1st 2023, 9:59AM 1 Comment

by Sally Lindsay

He says the central bank in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement seems to have deliberately downplayed the suppression of wages growth from the migration boom. “And it has assumed a level for the currency which is below where it is at.

Alexander says the RBNZ hasn’t allowed for any tightening of fiscal policy, and it has assumed El Nino has zero impact on agricultural production. “These are fairly unrealistic assumptions and positions.”

He expects the first cut in the cash rate to come in the second half of next year, but most people will not be expecting that cut for ages.

“The message from the RBNZ’s MPS could have been headlined: We are here to scare you.

“That is really what the statement was about. Because inflation is still at 5.6% there is no scope for making any errors. If inflation was 4.1%, or something like that, then the RBNZ would have given more benefit of the doubt to some of these factors and the direction of inflation falling. But at 5.6%, it still can't take any risks. It is too far away from the 1-3% range of the bank’s remit.” 

Alexander says the last thing the RBNZ wants is people feeling comfort about interest rates and expecting them to fall away strongly.

“We will reach that point at some stage, and I am picking the middle of next year. The interest rate outlook people have is going to be quite different from where we sit now,” Alexander says.

Tags: OCR forecasts

« Record immigration to blame for rates staying higher for longer: RBNZInterest-only loans spurned as mortgage arrears increase »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

On 1 December 2023 at 1:11 pm Amused said:
Those of us who have been doing this a while remember how wrong Tony was about his interest rate predictions during the GFC and the subsequent financial consequences for so many borrowers around the country. Given his documented track record of being wrong about the future direction of interest rates and house prices I'm surprised the media still give him a forum express his opinions. Respectfully the media need to start interviewing an experienced economist like Cameron Bagrie who is actually in touch with the current state of the economy and the housing market.

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News
Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.45 7.05 6.85
ANZ 8.64 7.99 7.49 7.35
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.39 6.89 6.75
ASB Bank 8.64 7.39 6.89 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.35 6.89 6.79
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.95 7.65 7.45
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.15 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.35 6.89 6.75
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.85 7.39 7.25
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.85 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.59 7.29
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.35 7.89 7.65
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.35 6.89 6.75
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.90 7.39 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.30 7.89 7.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.30 8.89 8.69
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.95 7.45 7.29
SBS Bank Special - 7.45 6.95 6.79
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 7.05 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.19 7.55 7.55
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.39 6.75 6.75
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.85 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 7.15 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.45 7.37 6.79

Last updated: 14 February 2024 1:37pm

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com