tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Friday, October 11th, 6:54PM

Mortgages

rss
Latest Headlines

Economists remain divided on how early the first rate cut will come

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner continues to expect no official cash rate (OCR) cuts this year but other economists, including BNZ's Doug Steel and Kiwibank's Jarrod Kerr and ASB's Mark Smith, expect one cut late this year.

Thursday, April 11th 2024, 6:00AM

by Jenny Ruth

The Reserve Bank held its OCR steady at 5.5% as just about every economist had expected it would.

ANZ described the RBNZ's statement as “playing with a straight bat,” and that the economy had continued to evolve broadly as had been expected in the February monetary policy statement.

Such a comment “isn't suggestive of any hurry to change stance, and against the backdrop of a market – particularly offshore participants – that saw the potential for a further dovish tilt, we may see mild upside pressure on short-end rates and the NZ dollar over coming days,” Zollner said.

She expects inflation will fall a little more slowly than RBNZ is expecting and RBNZ forecast in February that the first OCR cut wouldn't come before about mid-2025.

BNZ's Steel said his team hadn't seen anything in the balance of data since February to cause any material change to RBNZ's stance.

RBNZ's very short statement did note some “near-term pressures” which Steel read as an acknowledgement that the March quarter Consumers Price Index may be a little stronger than the 0.4% RBNZ has forecast.

BNZ is expecting a 0.8% quarterly increase for an annual read of 4.2%.

“Overall, there was nothing in today's [Wednesday's] missive from the central bank to change our broad view of the world,” Steel said.

“We maintain our forecast that the RBNZ is on hold for the time being and we continue to expect the first rate cut later this year,” he said.

ASB's Smith said the key takeout from the review is that there's “a high threshold” for any future OCR moves.

“With inflation still well above target and with inherent uncertainty over the inflation outlook, they [RBNZ] wisely chose to play with a straight bat,” Smith said.

ASB is expecting the first OCR cut in November but thinks monetary policy settings will still remain on the restrictive side of neutral for a year or so beyond that.

Tags: OCR

« BREAKING: OCR 5.50% - Official Cash Rate remains unchangedMortgage Lab buys new trail book »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News
Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 5.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.49 ▼6.19 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
ANZ ▼7.89 6.79 6.29 6.29
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 6.19 5.69 5.69
ASB Bank 8.39 ▼6.19 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 8.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 6.19 5.79 5.79
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One ▼7.94 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay ▼7.94 - - -
BNZ - Std ▼7.94 6.45 5.89 5.79
BNZ - TotalMoney ▼7.94 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.70 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.95 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.75 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.70 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼5.99 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.15 ▼6.19 ▼5.75 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.15 ▼6.69 ▼6.25 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 6.60 6.10 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.20 6.70 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.35 6.15
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.00 6.50 -
ICBC 7.49 6.15 5.69 5.69
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 8.25 7.19 6.69 6.59
Kiwibank - Offset 8.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 8.75 6.69 6.19 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 8.49 ▼6.95 ▼6.29 ▼6.29
SBS Bank Special - ▼6.35 ▼5.69 ▼5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 5.94 5.45 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
TSB Bank 9.19 7.09 6.59 6.59
TSB Special 8.39 6.29 5.79 5.79
Unity 8.64 6.29 5.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.20 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.50 ▼6.50 ▼5.89 -
Westpac 8.39 6.89 6.39 6.39
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 6.29 5.79 5.79
Median 8.39 6.47 6.10 5.79

Last updated: 12 October 2024 6:37pm

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com