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Market could be near a tipping point

For the first time in more than three years, more people are picking interest rates will fall, rather than rise, but they are unsure whether it is a good time to buy a house.

Thursday, June 20th 2024, 6:43AM

by Sally Lindsay

ASB says in its latest Housing Confidence Survey, a directionless housing market, high debt servicing costs, plentiful listings, and upfront affordability constraints mean it’s far from a straightforward decision about whether to buy.

For the first time since early 2021, more respondents expect interest rates to fall, than rise.

A net 1% of respondents expect interest rates to fall – down from 15% in January 2024.

Sentiment on the rates outlook is an important guide to future price direction and can help identify turning points, Kim Mundy, ASB senior economist says.

For example, the turn in interest rate expectations in late 2020/2021 was shortly followed by the peak in house price growth at about 30% in mid-2021. “We will be watching interest rate expectations closely in coming quarters.

A key difference this time around is that OCR cuts are still some way off on our forecast of February next year.

This is one of the reasons ASB is not surprised to see a decent number of respondents expecting house prices to remain unchanged in coming quarters.

The broader economic backdrop also matters, and Mundy expects economic growth to remain anemic and the unemployment rate to trend higher over 2024.

Neither factor is particularly supportive for housing demand.

“Nevertheless, as respondents grow more confident in their view that interest rates start falling, it’s likely to boost their enthusiasm (or ability) to transact in the market.”

Ultimately, ASB doesn’t expect to see a more pronounced lift in house prices until the RBNZ signals it will soon trim the OCR.

Tags: ASB

« Options for buyers locked out of scrapped first home loan grantGrowing number of property investment dollars moving across the ditch »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
ANZ 8.64 ▼7.45 ▼7.09 ▼6.95
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
ASB Bank 8.64 ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.39
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 ▼7.45 ▼7.09 ▼6.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼6.59 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 ▼6.79 ▼6.49 ▼6.35
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 ▼7.29 ▼6.99 ▼6.85
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 ▼6.69 ▼6.35 ▼6.15
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 ▼7.50 ▼7.25 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.69 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.74 7.35 6.99
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 ▼7.75 ▼7.39 ▼7.19
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.39
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 ▼7.25 ▼6.90 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.74 7.09 6.95
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 7.14 6.49 6.35
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.14 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 ▼7.65 ▼7.29 ▼7.19
TSB Special 8.64 ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.39
Unity 8.64 ▼6.85 ▼6.49 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - ▼6.45 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 8.64 ▼7.45 ▼7.09 ▼6.89
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼6.85 ▼6.49 ▼6.29
Median 8.64 7.07 6.85 6.39

Last updated: 24 July 2024 9:31am

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