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Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Wednesday 19 June 2013  Add your comment
Predictions for floating rates

Following the Reserve Bank announcement last week the market now prices 40 basis points of OCR hikes in the year ahead, and a 30% chance of a 25 point rate hike by year-end.

BNZ says it expects a first OCR hike in March next year. This would be the beginning of a process of ‘normalising’ the OCR from its current historic low of 2.50%. We then see a steady progression of the OCR to a cyclical peak of 4.50%, by mid-2015.

"Our view is based on the premise the economy is now showing broad-based strength, against the backdrop of limited excess capacity to absorb growth. This should lead to inflationary pressures down the track, as should the gradual decline in the NZ Dollar that we see unfolding next year. In addition, we believe house price appreciation will ultimately require a monetary policy response as well as the implementation of macro-prudential tools."

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Some good news for home buyers

While home affordability in New Zealand improved in the March quarter for the second successive quarter, buying a home remains distinctly less affordable than it was a year ago.

Wednesday, May 9th 2001, 9:50PM

by Jenny Ruth

While home affordability in New Zealand improved in the March quarter for the second successive quarter, buying a home remains distinctly less affordable than it was in the March quarter last year.

That's according to AMP Banking's home affordability survey conducted by Massey University.

Home affordability in New Zealand improved 2.3% on average in the March quarter and is expected to improve further this quarter as interest rates continue to decline. But it's still 10.1% worse than in the March quarter last year.

The survey found declining mortgage rates, a 0.3% decline in the median house price and a 1.4% rise in average weekly wages all contributed to the improvement in the latest quarter.

However, the median house price appeared to be the major determinant. While the national median house price fell from $174,000 to $173,500 over the quarter, house prices fell in five regions and rose in 12.

Affordability increased in the regions where house prices fell and decreased in the regions where house prices rose.

On an annual basis, all regions experienced a decline in home affordability and in nine of the 11 regions the median house rose over the year. The two regions in which house prices didn't rise, Taranaki and Southland, experienced the smallest declines in home affordability.

Perhaps that explains why housing sales activity remains subdued. Massey quotes Real Estate Institute figures showing housing sales were down 18.5% at 64,779 year on year.

The regions which experienced a quarterly improvement in affordability were Taranaki, up 7%, Wellington, up 5.4%, Hawkes Bay, up 3.8%, Northland, up 2.7% and Nelson, up 0.6%. Affordability fell 4.8% in Southland in the quarter and 3.6% in Otago and the declines in the rest of the country were all less than 1%.

In the year, affordability fell most in Northland, down 32.9%, and Otago, down 16.5%, and fell least in Taranaki, down 0.5%.

« Rebel takes banks to the commissionHome affordability »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AMP Home Loans 6.24 5.25 4.99 5.65
AMP Home Loans $200k+ 6.14 5.15 4.89 5.55
ANZ 5.74 5.25 5.45 5.80
ANZ Special - 4.95 - -
ASB Bank 5.75 5.19 5.45 5.75
ASB Bank Special - 4.95 - -
Bank Direct Special - 4.95 - -
BankDirect 5.75 5.19 5.45 5.75
BNZ - Classic - - 5.40 -
BNZ - GlobalPlus 5.99 5.25 5.65 5.80
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.40 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.99 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.99 5.25 5.65 5.80
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.74 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.20 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.85 5.45 5.45 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.75 - - -
eMortgage 6.04 6.15 6.69 7.19
Fantastic Home Loans 5.74 5.19 5.40 5.75
Fidelity Life 5.70 5.85 6.35 -
Finance Direct 6.10 6.45 6.69 7.10
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
First Credit Union 6.45 - - -
General Finance 5.95 6.25 6.50 7.10
HBS Bank 5.65 4.95 4.99 5.65
Heartland 5.95 6.25 6.50 7.10
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 5.25 5.65 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.75 5.25 5.40 5.74
HSBC Premier 5.99 4.99 5.25 5.45
HSBC Premier Special - - - -
Kiwibank 5.65 4.89 5.25 5.65
Kiwibank - Capped 5.65 6.50 - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.50 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Liberty 5.64 - - -
Napier Building Society 5.80 6.00 6.70 -
Nelson Building Society 6.45 5.95 6.25 -
NZ Home Loans 5.85 5.25 5.45 5.75
Perpetual Trust 7.70 - - -
RESIMAC - lo doc 6.59 6.35 6.55 6.90
RESIMAC LVR <80% 5.59 5.35 5.55 5.90
SBS Bank 5.65 4.94 4.99 5.65
Silver Fern 5.95 6.10 6.55 7.05
Southern Cross 5.95 6.25 6.50 7.10
Sovereign 5.85 5.19 5.45 5.75
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
The Co-operative Bank 5.70 4.94 5.35 5.75
The Co-operative Bank Special - - - -
TSB Bank 5.79 5.25 5.30 5.75
TSB Bank Special - ▼4.88 - -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.20 6.70 6.95 -
Westpac 6.24 5.19 5.45 5.90
Westpac - Capped rates - 6.50 - -
Westpac LVR >80% - 4.94 - -
Median 5.85 5.25 5.45 5.75

Last updated: 16 June 2013 9:53pm

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