About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds Other Sites:   depositrates.co.nz  |   landlords.co.nz
Last Article Uploaded: Saturday, December 20th, 2:10PM
Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Thursday 18 December 2014  Add your comment

The NZ Property Investor Magazine's annual survey is ready to hear from you. Tell us how your property investing is going, where you think the housing market is headed next year and more. By completing the survey you will get a free copy of the mag and go into a draw for one of several prizes.

If you own rental property please take a moment to complete the survey. Click here to continue

Thanks

rss
Latest Headlines

Bank economists all over the place

Picking which way the Reserve Bank will go with interest rates on Wednesday is anyone's guess, Rob Hosking says.

Monday, August 13th 2001, 12:15AM

by Rob Hosking

"No surprises" has become something of a tenet of monetary policy over the past few years.

The regular six-weekly Official Cash Rate reviews are eagerly anticipated by banks, those of us with mortgages, and the small group of us who watch policy developments. Generally though, by the time Reserve Bank governor Don Brash makes his announcement it is usually pretty clear which way, if at all, interest rates are to move.

And while Dr Brash’s quarterly monetary policy statements (MPS) contain a welter of economic analysis and comment – and these can contain the odd surprise – this material is in the nature of what lawyers call obiter dicta - of much interest but not part of the main judgment.

The central bank is going to find it hard not to surprise some on Wednesday when it releases its latest monetary policy statement and official cash rate review.

It’s been a long while since the advice to Dr Brash from the economists on the sidelines has been so varied. Generally, this close to the release of the MPS, bank economists have reached a clear line of thought on which way any moves on the interest rate will go, even if there is often a powerful minority dissenting to the prevailing view.

This time the bank economists are all over the place. While business lobby groups are, as always, calling for Dr Brash to emulate his offshore counterparts and cut the official cash rate from its present 5.75% level to 5.5% or lower, the banks are divided.

The labour market data released in recent days would seem to suggest that inflationary pressures are rising, but as Bancorp economist Stuart Marshall has pointed out, the labour market is not tight compared to most of the countries we like to compare ourselves to.

"There is no inflationary scare here, and if the currency could be forgotten, the Reserve Bank would have no excuse for not taking a more aggressive easing stance.

"But the currency is still down; and the Reserve Bank will still be reticent."

Back in its last MPS, the bank was still bullish about the international situation, and this was expected to flow through to the New Zealand economy (or those parts of it not experiencing the export-led growth) towards the end of the year.

The latest consensus forecasts, however, show a drop in world growth.

They have yet to flow through to New Zealand businesses and the latest confidence surveys show the mood is more upbeat, and, collectively, businesses have a higher level of investment intentions over the coming year than they have had for some time.

As UBS Warburg economist Roger Clement has observed, the channels through which the global slowdown would normally impact the New Zealand economy are not operating as they normally would.

However that dip does come, it could be accompanied by a locally induced lag on economic growth – the drought.

Low rainfall has caused the southern hydro lakes to drop, and if these remain low the need to make further power savings is likely to cause a dent in the growth profile.

And if the drought continues it will also mean a lean spring for many farmers. The production lag from this will take a while to feed through to the figures, but it will come.

All this points to Dr Brash having a lot to say on Wednesday – but if you were a betting person, you’d take a punt on him leaving interest rates where they are.

Rob Hosking is a Wellington-based freelance writer specialising in political, economic and IT related issues.

« Ombudsman sees few mortgage broker complaintsRB leaves rates unchanged »

Special Offers

Commenting is closed

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AMP Home Loans 7.24 5.69 6.19 6.55
AMP Home Loans $200k+ 7.14 5.59 6.09 6.45
AMP Home Loans LVR <80% - - 5.75 6.09
ANZ 6.74 6.09 6.19 6.39
ANZ Special - 5.59 5.75 5.99
ASB Bank 6.75 5.99 6.19 6.39
ASB Bank Special - 5.59 5.75 5.85
BankDirect 6.75 5.99 6.19 6.39
BankDirect Special - 5.59 5.75 5.85
BNZ - Classic - 5.69 5.75 5.99
BNZ - GlobalPlus 6.74 5.89 6.19 6.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 6.74 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 6.74 5.89 6.19 6.29
BNZ - TotalMoney 6.74 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.45 6.05 6.20 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.75 - - -
eMortgage 6.04 6.15 6.69 7.19
Finance Direct 6.10 6.45 6.69 7.10
First Credit Union 6.45 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
General Finance 5.95 6.25 6.50 7.10
HBS Bank 6.65 5.69 5.74 5.99
HBS Special - 5.59 5.49 5.69
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heretaunga Building Society 6.70 6.00 6.30 -
Housing NZ Corp 6.74 ▼5.70 ▼6.09 ▼6.29
HSBC Premier 6.84 ▼5.45 ▼5.65 5.99
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 6.75 5.99 6.39 -
Kiwibank 6.65 5.69 6.19 6.55
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank - Capped 5.65 6.50 - -
Kiwibank - Offset 6.55 - - -
Kiwibank LVR > 80% - - 5.75 5.89
Liberty - - - -
Napier Building Society 5.80 6.00 6.70 -
Nelson Building Society 6.95 6.15 6.60 -
NZ Home Loans 6.85 6.09 6.40 6.65
Perpetual Trust 7.70 - - -
Resimac 6.59 6.10 6.28 6.43
SBS Bank 6.65 5.69 5.74 5.99
SBS Bank Special - 5.59 5.49 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Silver Fern 5.95 6.10 6.55 7.05
Sovereign 6.85 5.99 6.19 6.39
Sovereign Special - 5.59 5.75 5.85
The Co-operative Bank 6.70 5.69 5.75 5.99
TSB Bank 6.74 5.95 6.19 6.30
TSB Special - - 5.79 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.20 5.75 5.95 -
Westpac 6.59 6.09 6.39 6.65
Westpac - Capped rates - 6.74 6.99 -
Westpac - Offset 6.59 - - -
Westpac Special - - - 5.99
Median 6.70 5.97 6.19 6.29

Last updated: 15 December 2014 11:07am

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

News Bites
Compare Mortgage Rates
Compare
from
to
for
To graph multiple lenders, hold down Ctrl key while clicking in list box
Find a Mortgage Broker

Add your company

Use map
About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox
 
Site by PHP Developer and eyelovedesign.com