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Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Thursday 18 April 2024
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Inflation expectations improve but still too high
Businesses' inflation expectations have improved slightly but remain uncomfortably high, economists say.
Tuesday, August 23rd 2011, 4:21PM
by Jenny Ruth
The Reserve Bank's latest survey of expectations shows businesses now expect two year ahead inflation will be 2.86%, down from 3% three months ago.
That's even though they're expecting the economy to grow much faster, at 2.9% in each of the next two years, down from the 2.1% growth for the next year they were expecting three months ago.
"It's (inflation expectations) down, but it's really quite fractional," says Craig Ebert, an economist at Bank of New Zealand.
"Essentially, these indicators are knocking on the ceiling - as soon as you get any growth in the economy you're going to be running inflation above tolerance levels. Normally, at this stage in the cycle, you would expect to see expectations down around their ankles," Ebert says.
"The starting point must be worrying. You just don't have any headroom."
Chris Tennent-Brown at ASB Bank says the slight dip in expectations isn't so surprising because of the stronger New Zealand dollar and the recent fall in oil prices.
Darren Gibbs at Deutsche Bank says while a decline is better than an increase, inflation expectations are still higher than Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard would like.
All other things being equal, today's survey would likely prompt Bollard to start raising interest rates at his next review on September 15 but he probably won't because of the turmoil in global financial markets, Gibbs says. Gibbs is picking Bollard will hold off until March next year but concensus is for a rate rise in December.
However, Annette Beacher at TD Securities says given inflation expectations remain "sticky," Bollard's message that the rise in GST last October shouldn't translate into higher prices "is still not sinking in."
She says Bollard has strong grounds to reverse the "emergency" move in March when he cut his official cash rate (OCR) from 3% to 2.5% following Christchurch's second major earthquake.
But after that she expects Bollard to sit on the sidelines well into 2012 "to assess the impact of persistent negative offshore headwinds on the outlook for exports and commodity prices.
Commenting is closed
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Mortgage Rates Table
Full Rates Table | Compare Rates
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
AIA - Back My Build |
6.19 |
- |
- |
- |
AIA - Go Home Loans |
8.74 |
7.24 |
6.75 |
6.65 |
ANZ |
8.64 |
7.84 |
7.39 |
7.25 |
ANZ Blueprint to Build |
7.39 |
- |
- |
- |
ANZ Good Energy |
- |
- |
- |
1.00 |
ANZ Special |
- |
7.24 |
6.79 |
6.65 |
ASB Bank |
8.64 |
7.24 |
6.75 |
6.65 |
ASB Better Homes Top Up |
- |
- |
- |
1.00 |
Avanti Finance |
9.15 |
- |
- |
- |
Basecorp Finance |
9.60 |
- |
- |
- |
Bluestone |
9.24 |
- |
- |
- |
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
BNZ - Classic |
- |
7.24 |
6.79 |
6.65 |
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups |
- |
- |
- |
1.00 |
BNZ - Mortgage One |
8.69 |
- |
- |
- |
BNZ - Rapid Repay |
8.69 |
- |
- |
- |
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys |
8.69 |
7.84 |
7.39 |
7.25 |
BNZ - TotalMoney |
8.69 |
- |
- |
- |
CFML Loans |
9.45 |
- |
- |
- |
China Construction Bank |
- |
7.09 |
6.75 |
6.49 |
China Construction Bank Special |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special |
- |
7.04 |
- |
- |
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ |
8.40 |
7.24 |
6.79 |
6.65 |
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
Co-operative Bank - Standard |
8.40 |
7.74 |
7.29 |
7.15 |
Credit Union Auckland |
7.70 |
- |
- |
- |
First Credit Union Special |
- |
7.45 |
7.35 |
- |
First Credit Union Standard |
8.50 |
7.99 |
7.85 |
- |
Heartland Bank - Online |
7.99 |
6.69 |
6.45 |
6.19 |
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Heretaunga Building Society |
8.90 |
7.60 |
7.40 |
- |
HSBC Premier |
8.59 |
- |
- |
- |
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
HSBC Special |
- |
- |
- |
- |
ICBC |
7.85 |
7.05 |
6.75 |
6.59 |
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
Kainga Ora |
8.64 |
7.79 |
7.39 |
7.25 |
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Kiwibank |
8.50 |
8.25 |
7.79 |
7.55 |
Kiwibank - Offset |
8.50 |
- |
- |
- |
Kiwibank Special |
- |
7.25 |
6.79 |
6.65 |
Liberty |
8.59 |
8.69 |
8.79 |
8.94 |
Nelson Building Society |
9.00 |
7.75 |
7.35 |
- |
Pepper Money Advantage |
10.49 |
- |
- |
- |
Pepper Money Easy |
8.69 |
- |
- |
- |
Pepper Money Essential |
8.29 |
- |
- |
- |
Resimac - LVR < 80% |
8.84 |
8.09 |
7.59 |
7.29 |
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
Resimac - LVR < 90% |
9.84 |
9.09 |
8.59 |
8.29 |
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) |
- |
- |
8.99 |
- |
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) |
- |
- |
9.49 |
- |
SBS Bank |
8.74 |
7.84 |
7.45 |
7.25 |
SBS Bank Special |
- |
7.24 |
6.85 |
6.65 |
SBS Construction lending for FHB |
- |
- |
- |
- |
SBS FirstHome Combo |
6.19 |
6.74 |
- |
- |
SBS FirstHome Combo |
- |
- |
- |
- |
SBS Unwind reverse equity |
9.95 |
- |
- |
- |
Select Home Loans |
9.24 |
- |
- |
- |
TSB Bank |
9.44 |
8.04 |
7.55 |
7.45 |
Lender |
Flt |
1yr |
2yr |
3yr |
TSB Special |
8.64 |
7.24 |
6.75 |
6.65 |
Unity |
8.64 |
6.99 |
6.79 |
- |
Unity First Home Buyer special |
- |
- |
6.45 |
- |
Wairarapa Building Society |
8.60 |
6.95 |
6.85 |
- |
Westpac |
8.64 |
7.89 |
7.35 |
7.25 |
Westpac Choices Everyday |
8.74 |
- |
- |
- |
Westpac Offset |
8.64 |
- |
- |
- |
Westpac Special |
- |
7.29 |
6.75 |
6.65 |
Median |
8.64 |
7.29 |
7.32 |
6.65 |
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