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Rate rise not expected this week: Economists

Despite a raft of stronger-than-expected data last week, economists still don’t expect Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard will raise interest rates when he reviews the official cash rate (OCR) on Thursday.

Monday, January 24th 2005, 1:47AM

by Jenny Ruth

But that stronger data does increase the possibility of a further rate hike later this year and decreases the likelihood of any rate cut.

A Reuters poll of 14 economists found they think there’s a 73% chance of Bollard leaving rates unchanged, although there’s a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rise from the current 6.5% OCR.

They rated the chances of a rate cut at only 1%. Among the data, the December quarter inflation rate was 20 basis points higher than the central bank had expected and pushed the annual rate to 2.7%, just below the bank’s 3% upper limit.

A business survey showed a high level of capacity utilisation, the New Zealand dollar is weaker than the Reserve Bank expected and retail sales in November were 7.7% up on the previous November.

Westapc chief economist Brendan O’Donovan says he expects no change "but they will still be talking tough."

While the latest economic growth figures were weaker than the central bank had expected, "most of the other stuff will be keeping them nervous nellies."

Stephen Toplis, an economist at Bank of New Zealand, says if he was setting monetary policy, he would be increasing rates.

However, he doesn’t think Bollard will this week because he "was so dogmatic at the last monetary policy statement that he wasn’t going to shift rates."

Toplis rates the probability of a rate increase in the first half of this year at 45%.

ASB Bank economist Kate Skinner is also expecting tough rhetoric and says there’s a risk Bollard may prepare the market for a rate hike in March.

"On the whole, the data point to more tightening being needed," she says.

ANZ Bank’s economists says the recent data "will have the Reserve Bank on edge" but that the hurdle that would push it to raise rates now hasn’t been met.

The six rate hikes last year have to be given a chance to work, they say.

"If the Reserve Bank does pull the trigger, what is the plan from here? Where does the currency go? Markets will automatically shift to price in a chance of a further hike in March. Further pushes higher for the OCR will increase the probability of policy reversal and potentially unnecessary volatility in rates."

« House prices stable, but fewer sellingOCR unchanged at 6.5% »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

Last updated: 28 March 2024 9:42am

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