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Mortgages

Mortgage Rates Daily Commentary
Friday 18 June 2021  Add your comment
ANZ predicts OCR hike in February; ASB to repay $9m over break-fee blunder; Westpac rate cuts

ANZ economists predict the official cash rate will begin to rise in February, after the New Zealand economy roared back into life in the first quarter: [READ ON]

ASB has been censured by the Commerce Commission after hitting home loan customers with over-expensive break-fees. It will pay affected customers nearly $9m: [READ ON]

Westpac has slashed its one year mortgages by 6 basis points this morning. Check out the latest rates here.

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No surprises in Reserve Bank's move

Little surprise followed the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut this morning - and further cuts are now generally expected to come this year.

Thursday, July 23rd 2015, 11:05AM

by Miriam Bell

In a move that was widely forecast, the Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 25 basis points to 3.0% this morning.   

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said the reduction was warranted by the softening in the country’s economic outlook and low inflation.

He added that further easing seemed likely.

Economists were not surprised by the news, but were interested in the change in language   in the RBNZ’s statement.

There was a clear bias to downwards easing in the statement which signals further cuts are on the way, according to ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.

He said that, in a nutshell, the decline in dairy prices and soft inflation have changed the RBNZ’s outlook for the economy.

“The economy needs more stimulation. While the New Zealand dollar has fallen of late, further decline is needed. But the RBNZ’s language does reflect the fact the exchange rate is no longer unsustainably high.”

He sees the RBNZ cutting the OCR again in September and then in October, by 25 basis points each time.

The RBNZ’s line that “further easing seems likely” did indicate further cuts are to come, agreed NZIER senior economist Christina Leung.

She said there has been increasing speculation that there will be a 50 basis point cut at some point, so that the OCR goes as low as 2%.

But the announcement today suggested to her that the RBNZ doesn’t have the appetite to go quite that far.

“The country’s economic outlook is not as weak as has been said,” she continued.

For example, the New Zealand dollar’s sharp fall has given a boost to [non-dairy] export sectors and to services like tourism.

Further, there is solid construction activity in Auckland and Christchurch, while the decline in the New Zealand dollar should provide a bit of a buffer for falling dairy prices.

Leung said NZIER expected a 25 basis point cut in September and possibly another in October - although that didn’t seem warranted as yet.

Both Tuffley and Leung noted that the New Zealand dollar and New Zealand wholesale interest rates both moved slightly higher after the RBNZ’s announcement.

However, they both said this was largely due to the fact the market had priced in the small chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.

As this did not happen, the market was unwinding that speculative position.

Meanwhile, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens interpreted the RBNZ’s announcement in a less dovish fashion.

He said the RBNZ’s blunter language was clearly signalling deeper OCR cuts than the 3% low-point advised in its June Monetary Policy Statement.

“We are not surprised that the RBNZ sees the need for further cuts. However, we are also unsurprised that the RBNZ has moved relatively cautiously at this OCR review.”

There was nothing in the RBNZ’s statement to cause Westpac to alter its forecasts, Stephens said.

“We remain comfortable calling a 2.0% low-point in the OCR, with the odds favouring a 50bps reduction at some point, most likely in September.”

Following the OCR cut, a number of banks - including ANZ, Kiwibank and SBS Bank - made cuts to a range of their rates.

Tags: ANZ banks Kiwibank Mortgage Rates OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ SBS

« OCR cut to 3%More OCR cuts are on the way - RBNZ »

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Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 ▼2.19 2.59 ▲2.99
ANZ 4.44 2.79 3.19 3.59
ANZ Special - 2.19 2.59 2.99
ASB Back My Build 1.79 - - -
ASB Bank 4.45 ▼2.19 2.59 ▲2.99
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - ▼2.19 2.55 2.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 ▼2.79 3.15 3.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
CFML Loans 4.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 1.95 1.85 2.35 2.45
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.80 3.90 -
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 2.25 2.35 2.65
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.67 2.97 3.13
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.40 3.04 3.40 3.84
Kiwibank - Offset 3.40 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.40 2.19 2.55 2.99
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 3.20 3.24 -
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac 3.39 2.98 2.79 3.29
SBS Bank 4.54 2.69 2.99 3.29
SBS Bank Special - 2.19 2.49 2.79
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▼1.99 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▼2.19 2.59 ▲2.99
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▼2.69 3.09 ▲3.49
TSB Bank 5.34 2.99 3.35 ▲3.79
TSB Special 4.54 2.19 2.55 ▲2.99
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Westpac 4.59 ▼2.79 3.19 3.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼2.19 2.59 2.99
Median 4.55 2.68 2.99 2.99

Last updated: 18 June 2021 9:03am

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