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Housing market stalling?

The housing market is showing signs of flattening, after rebounding in the middle of last year, according to ANZ's latest property gauges.

Wednesday, January 27th 2010, 10:01AM

by The Landlord

"The most recent reading of the real estate market looks as though activity has plateaued and is turning down," the bank said in its Property Focus report.

ANZ's  gauges are used to monitor the state of the property market and show "tough times may not be over just yet".

Five of the 10 gauges are predicting a decline in house prices over the next month, with another gauge neutral with a negative bias, one neutral and two gauges neutral with a positive bias.

Liquidity, which measures the availability of credit to support the market, has a way to go, with credit still a constraint. The recovery in globalisation also has a way to go, having to recover from a deep hole.

Mortgagee sales are also set to have a negative impact on prices, despite having come off its highs, and remain "at lofty levels".

Median rent has made a modest rise, which ANZ believes will put downward pressure on prices.

Housing affordability, measured using the ratio of house prices to income and mortgage payments proportional to income, is showing signs of being at a more normal level currently, but deteriorating in the short term.

Conversely, for existing home owners serviceability/indebtedness is improving, having been at high levels, but is now easing and likely to have a negative impact on prices.

There is, however, a glimmer of hope for consents to build which are lifting off their low base. The number of building consents rose 1.2% in November, although ANZ cautions "there seems a way to go yet".

The supply-demand balance remains "one-sided", with demand still high and available property on the market in short supply.

Sales volumes are predicted to stay down and look set to continue driving property prices up. The number of house sales eased 3.7% (seasonally adjusted) in December, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand and the median time to sell lengthened by one day to 36 days.

Until now, most indicators and market measures have been showing a gradual recovery, but now not everything is looking so flash.

"We've turned the corner but more work still needs to be done."

« Momentum building in house market, according to ANZFree Investment Property Showcase Events: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch »

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 4.94 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 7.49 5.79 5.49 5.59
ANZ 7.39 6.39 6.19 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 5.79 5.59 5.59
ASB Bank 7.39 5.79 5.49 5.59
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 7.90 - - -
Basecorp Finance ▼8.35 - - -
BNZ - Classic - 5.99 5.69 5.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 7.54 - - -
BNZ - Std 7.44 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
BNZ - TotalMoney 7.54 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 6.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 8.25 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 9.20 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 5.69 - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 6.95 5.79 5.59 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 6.95 6.29 6.09 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 5.99 5.89 -
First Credit Union Standard ▼7.69 6.69 6.39 -
Heartland Bank - Online 6.99 ▼5.49 ▼5.39 ▼5.45
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.60 6.65 6.40 -
ICBC 7.49 5.79 5.59 5.59
Kainga Ora 8.39 7.05 6.59 6.49
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kiwibank 7.25 ▼6.69 ▼6.49 6.49
Kiwibank - Offset 7.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special 7.25 ▼5.79 ▼5.59 5.69
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 7.94 ▼5.75 ▼5.99 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
SBS Bank 7.49 6.95 6.29 6.29
SBS Bank Special - ▼5.89 ▼5.49 5.69
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS FirstHome Combo 4.94 ▼4.89 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.75 - - -
TSB Bank 8.19 6.49 ▼6.39 ▼6.39
TSB Special 7.39 5.69 ▼5.59 ▼5.59
Unity 7.64 ▼5.79 ▼5.55 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 5.49 - -
Wairarapa Building Society ▼7.70 ▼5.95 ▼5.75 -
Westpac 7.39 6.39 6.09 6.19
Westpac Choices Everyday 7.49 - - -
Westpac Offset 7.39 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac Special - 5.79 5.49 5.59
Median 7.49 5.84 5.75 5.69

Last updated: 9 December 2024 10:05am

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