tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Friday, March 29th, 10:40AM

Mortgages

rss
Latest Headlines

OCR reaction: cut less likely and rates to stay low

Economists believe the Reserve Bank has adopted a slightly more hawkish stance on the OCR, but say the unchanged forecast suggests a continued low interest rate environment.

Thursday, November 8th 2018, 9:34AM

Nick Tuffley, ASB

The Reserve Bank kept the OCR at the record low of 1.75% this morning as widely expected, and also kept its forecast of a rate rise in 2020 unchanged. Yet there were a few subtle changes to the bank's language, with no reference to the rate moving "up or down".

As a result, economists and analysts believe the central bank is slightly more hawkish on the OCR track, but predict mortgage borrowers will enjoy low rates through 2019 and into the following year, as economic growth remains soft and downside risks remain.

The announcement comes off the back of an unexpected drop in unemployment, and rising inflation, spurred by increased petrol prices. Economists believe the likelihood of a rate cut has fallen due to the trends.

CoreLogic senior analyst Kelvin Davidson said the MPS was notable due to the absence of "up of down" language, used in the August statement. He said: "It may have already been absent prior to yesterday’s labour market data, but whatever the case, the drop in the unemployment rate has now seemingly taken a near term rate cut off the table."

ASB's Nick Tuffley also noted the more "hawkish" tone from RBNZ, and said: "I think it was slightly more hawkish they have moved away from the idea of a cut in the OCR. There is more upside risk on inflation and but they have not really responded to that. They are saying they are doing to keep the OCR low and and inflation might rise a bit above 2% in the future."

Christina Leung of NZIER said there were no major surprises in the RBNZ's outlook but pointed out the "hurdle for a cut is not that high", despite the absence of "up or down" language in the MPS. She added: "Ultimately we focus on what they have done to the forecast and there has been no change at all. It doesn't change our expectation that there will be a rate rise in the first quarter of 2020."

Overall, economists say the MPS underlines the belief interest rates will stay low for a considerable time. CoreLogic's Davidson added: "All of this points to a benign environment for borrowers. The RBNZ’s expectation that the OCR will be unchanged until late 2020 (or even slightly into 2021) suggests that domestic mortgage rates will also stay low and stable, particularly given that banks are still fighting hard to attract the best borrowers in the current low-turnover property market.

Tags: ASB OCR OCR forecasts

« What the RBNZ said todayGlobal recognition for Kiwi mortgage fintech firm »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News
Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.24 6.79 6.65
ANZ 8.64 7.84 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.24 6.79 6.65
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.24 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.84 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 7.04 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 7.24 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.74 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.69 6.45 6.19
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.75 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.79 7.39 7.25
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 8.25 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 7.25 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.75 7.35 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 ▼8.09 ▼7.59 ▼7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 ▼9.09 ▼8.59 ▼8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.84 7.45 7.25
SBS Bank Special - 7.24 6.85 6.65
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.74 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 8.04 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 7.24 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - - 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.89 7.49 7.25
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.29 6.89 6.65
Median 8.64 7.29 7.32 6.65

Last updated: 28 March 2024 9:42am

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox  |  Disclaimer
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com