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Migration confusion

Is migration into New Zealand going up or down? Stats NZ’s new migration measuring system is making it hard to tell.

Friday, March 15th 2019, 2:12PM

by Miriam Bell

When the new system's first estimates were released back in January they showed a fall in migration flows into New Zealand, with annual net migration coming in at 43,000 in the year to November 2018.

They also suggested that annual net migration over recent years has been lower than previously thought.

However, Stats NZ’s latest migration estimates, which were released today, tell a different story. They give a provisional estimate of annual net migration of 58,400 in the year ending January 2019.

That's up 10.4% compared to the net gain of 52,880 that occurred in the year to January 2018, and it’s nearing the peak of 61,800 that occurred in the year to January 2017.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod says the Stats NZ estimates have January seeing a second massive net migration result, with an estimated net inflow of 6,300 people over the month.

On top of that the previous month was revised up from 5,080 to 6,800, he says.

“Those are some of the strongest figures we’ve seen in at least 18 years. Today’s data and the related revisions leave the annual inflow of people into the country running at 58,000.

“That implies a significant and sudden change in direction in net migration over the past two months.”

However, the figures need to be taken with a large grain of salt due to the significant changes in how Stats NZ measures migration flows, he says.

“Over time, the new system should give a more accurate estimate of what happened to migration in the past. But, as we’ve seen in recent months, there some big questions about the near-term estimates of migration flows.”

Ranchhod says that, at face value, the new estimates indicate that the downturn in net migration since 2016 has been arrested and may even be reversing – but he has doubts about that.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith agrees the data suggests net immigration inflows are on a strengthening trajectory, where they earlier signalled a plateauing in net inflows at historically high levels.  

His expectation is that net immigration will eventually moderate, he says. “But the monthly volatility in the figures make it difficult to discern what has happened to resident population changes, let along point to what could potentially happen.

“This will have widespread economic and policy implications, ranging from monetary to fiscal policy and for infrastructure and housing provision. For now, we just have to wait and see.”

Tags: ASB demand housing market migration population growth property investment Stats NZ Westpac

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AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.14 6.75 6.39
ANZ 8.64 7.74 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - ▼6.99 ▼6.49 ▼6.29
ASB Bank 8.64 7.14 6.75 6.39
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.14 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.74 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 6.79 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 6.99 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.49 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.89 6.55 6.35
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.69 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.74 7.35 6.99
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 7.99 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 6.99 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.65 7.25 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.09 7.59 7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.09 8.59 8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.74 7.09 6.95
SBS Bank Special - 7.14 6.49 6.35
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.14 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 7.79 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 6.99 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.55 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.84 7.35 6.99
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.24 6.75 6.39
Median 8.64 7.19 7.17 6.65

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