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OCR Preview: economists predict no change

Economists believe the Reserve Bank will hold fire on making further cuts to the Official Cash Rate next week, with a further cut more likely in November.

Friday, September 20th 2019, 9:26AM 1 Comment

Respondents to TMM's OCR Preview Survey unanimously predict the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will opt against a cut next week following the 50 basis point reduction in August. 

The surprise cut to a record low 1% caught markets off guard last month, and economists say the size of the cut will give the central bank breathing space until November. 

The Reserve Bank has cut rates over the course of 2019 amid sluggish economic growth and concerns over global trade. 

Leading economists responding to TMM's survey said they expect the rate to remain unchanged, with an outside chance of a further cut. 

Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank, said: "We expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged next week. The decision to cut 50bps to 1% in August was the fast-forwarding of two cuts into one. So we don’t need another cut so quickly. Conditions haven’t deteriorated that much."

Kerr gave a 30% probability of another cut, "which is high and reflects the environment we are in".

Brad Olsen of Infometrics also believes rates will remain on hold, but does not discount the possibility of another cut.

"We currently expect no change in the OCR from the Reserve Bank at next week’s review. However, with the Reserve Bank making bold choices in recent times, and a generally more sour economic outlook continuing to become reality, there’s still a chance of a cut," Olsen said.

Michael Reddell also predicts the OCR will be on hold. He believes the central bank could fire a warning on the economy.

"I would expect them to move further away from the expectation of a recovery in growth (push it out further), as the local and foreign data have continued to deteriorate since the last MPS," Reddell adds.

ANZ's Sharon Zollner expects the rate to remain on hold, and instead believes the OCR will fall in November, February and May, taking it to just 25 basis points.

"We’d expect some line about how downside risks have increased, and to leave the door open for a lower OCR from here," Zollner said.


Tags: ANZ Infometrics Kiwibank OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Reserve Bank Sharon Zollner

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Comments from our readers

On 20 September 2019 at 11:15 am Winka said:
Oh boy....Nearly two years ago, myself and a select few colleagues put forth a prediction of an inevitable slump (here and worldwide) which would likely not be a recession, ....more serious than that.

Monetary policy, with the central banks reducing interest rates in a bid to stimulate failing economies can work, except where an inevitable outcome is imminent
Fiscal policies then enter the frey and we see tax, and other methods attempted to try and halt the inevitable

When interest rates are NEAR ZERO, there is no effective solution, other than "below zero" alongside fiscal attempts.

Print more money....filter it into the system via government bonds and attempts at talking up the economy with regulation in various sectors cannot do it forever/

The last few years of us seeing all those buildings with new scaffold and white plastic-wrap mainly to try and satisfy new over-the-top regulations imposed by local governments (councils) have given hope to some that it has actually been a booming economy, and most people cannot imagine life without all that 'work?'

So, what on earth are we to expect when all the current 'regulation' stuff is finished?
Maybe more 'add-on' regulation.

Or, the seeming inevitable wage strikes in an attempt to a 'catch-up' to the conditioned 'asset-inflation' we have seen during these recent years.

There are even the expected organisations who attempt to 'talk-up' property markets that are now laying down with signs of death-throws, and talking up as if the graph can be expected to continue to rise steeper and steeper without any natural 'corrections?'

Sort of like turning on the inside (and outside) heaters to mask out the effects of natural winters?

Which side is right....and which side is wrong?

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China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
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First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
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Heartland Bank - Online 2.50 1.99 2.35 2.45
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.50 3.40 -
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HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
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HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 3.69 2.45 2.45 2.65
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Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.40 ▼3.20 3.50 3.50
Kiwibank - Offset 3.40 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.40 ▼2.35 2.65 2.65
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 3.20 3.24 -
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 3.35 2.99 3.35
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SBS Bank Special - 2.49 2.59 2.65
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TSB Bank 5.34 ▼3.09 3.29 3.59
TSB Special 4.54 ▼2.29 2.49 2.79
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.55 3.49 -
Westpac 4.59 3.09 3.29 3.39
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
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