Advisers share top concerns
Tightening credit, bullish investors pushing FHBs out of the market, and demand outweighing supply in the housing market are key concerns for advisers according to a survey conducted by leading economist Tony Alexander.
Friday, December 6th 2019, 7:30AM
The latest "Tony's View" survey, conducted by the former BNZ chief economist, now an independent, reveals advisers are positive about the housing market, but fear not all clients will be able to participate.
Advisers gave anonymous anecdotal responses to the economist's survey.
One Auckland-based adviser said they expected prices to soar in the city in the coming months.
"It appears that almost all of the properties we are hearing about are selling at prices above, and in some cases, well above expectation. It appears, to me, that demand is outweighing supply (re existing properties in Auckland anyway), which is pushing up prices. I am interested in seeing media reports over the next few months and I suspect that they will lead to others jumping into the market (for FOMO)."
Another adviser said "high and continuing [housing] demand, lack of housing stock, low rates and migration all point to a healthy property market, and with the Government changes in rental regulations I see more renters trying to become owners as the rental stock will fall significantly".
One Wellington-based adviser feared FHBs are unable to compete with investors. They described an "investor's market, pushing first home buyers out due to supply shortage. Ability for people to use KiwiSaver, coupled with more parents using recent equity increases to help buy homes. First home buyers being squeezed out due to investors being more confident and lenders making it too hard for first home buyers to get a home."
A Tauranga-based adviser agreed it was a difficult market for first home buyers, with prices continuing to increase. They said "banks are not keen to lend", and "the capital adequacy unknown is limiting lending appetite", but there were "plenty" of opportunities for other buyers.
A mortgage lender for "one of the Aussie-owned banks" also weighed in on the survey. They said: "The key trend I'm seeing is the tightening up of credit. I think it is largely influenced by RBNZ, APRA and the fallout from the royal commission, (although not as bad as expected). In my opinion it is more difficult to be approved lending now, even compared to post GFC around 2008, 2009, which was a difficult period."
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