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ANZ predicts February OCR hike following GDP growth

ANZ economists predict the official cash rate will begin to rise in February, after the New Zealand economy roared back into life in the first quarter.

Thursday, June 17th 2021, 12:48PM

Latest GDP figures show the economy grew by 1.6% in the three months to March, beating forecasts of -0.6%. 

The surprisingly strong data has prompted ANZ's team of economists to bring forward their rate hike predictions. 

ANZ's team, led by Sharon Zollner, had predicted rate increases from August next year, but today's data has prompted the team to change course.

"While the data remain noisy under the hood, the core drivers of domestic demand, alongside lingering supply disruptions and biting capacity constraints, mean inflation pressures are lifting strongly. That’s consistent with OCR hikes being needed, and a year from now feels too far away.

However, the bank stopped short of saying a hike was guaranteed. The team of economists said a rate increase was "highly conditional, in light of the Reserve Bank’s 'least regrets' approach. In particular, the evolution of inflation, inflation expectations and the labour market are key," the bank said.

Tags: ANZ economy GDP OCR OCR forecasts

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AIA 4.55 2.85 3.25 3.55
ANZ 4.44 3.20 3.59 4.00
ANZ Blueprint to Build 1.68 - - -
ANZ Special - 2.60 2.99 3.40
ASB Back My Build 1.79 - - -
ASB Bank 4.45 2.85 3.25 3.55
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
BNZ - Classic - ▲2.85 ▲3.25 ▲3.55
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
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BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 ▲3.45 ▲3.85 ▲4.15
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
CFML Loans 4.95 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
Credit Union South 5.65 3.95 3.85 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 2.95 3.45 -
Heartland Bank - Online 2.25 1.85 2.35 2.65
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 3.80 3.90 -
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HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 3.69 2.35 2.75 3.05
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.88 3.28 3.59
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank 3.75 ▲3.80 ▲4.00 4.34
Kiwibank - Offset 3.75 - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.75 ▲2.95 ▲3.15 3.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 2.99 3.24 -
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Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Resimac 3.39 2.98 2.79 3.29
SBS Bank 4.54 2.99 3.39 3.59
SBS Bank Special - 2.49 2.89 3.09
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The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▲2.85 ▲3.25 ▲3.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▲3.35 ▲3.75 ▲3.99
TSB Bank 5.34 3.35 3.75 4.05
TSB Special 4.54 2.55 2.95 3.25
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Westpac 4.59 ▲3.45 ▲3.85 4.09
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Median 4.54 2.95 3.25 3.49

Last updated: 23 September 2021 8:11am

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