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Last Article Uploaded: Friday, December 3rd, 9:22PM

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Westpac forecasting an even higher OCR

Westpac has increased its forecast for the official cash rate to 3%.

Thursday, November 4th 2021, 11:02AM

by Eric Frykberg

Along with most experts, the bank had been forecasting the Official Cash Rate to plateau at about 2%.

The last time the OCR was at this level Westpac's two-year fixed rate sat at 6% (see graph).

But Westpac now thinks a 2% OCR would not be enough to rein in inflationary pressures.

Its view has been affected by a record-equalling low of 3.4% unemployment, which it says is bound to push up wages.

The bank adds the Official Cash Rate peak of 3% will happen by mid-2023.

It says while that wouldn’t be particularly high compared with long term history, it would be a significant unwinding of the economic stimulus that was put in place in response to Covid-19.

It adds the OCR is unlikely to come back to 2% before 2025.

Westpac goes on to say there is a chance the RBNZ might abandon its practice of 25 basis point jumps in the OCR in favour of a much bigger leap of 50 basis points, each time it makes a move.

Tags: OCR OCR forecasts Westpac

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA ▲4.60 3.65 4.35 4.69
ANZ 4.79 4.25 4.95 5.35
ANZ Blueprint to Build 2.03 - - -
ANZ Special - 3.65 4.35 4.75
ASB Back My Build ▲2.29 - - -
ASB Bank ▲4.60 3.65 4.35 4.69
Avanti Finance 4.55 - - -
Basecorp Finance 5.49 - - -
Bluestone 3.74 3.54 3.89 4.09
BNZ - Classic - 3.65 4.35 4.69
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.95 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.95 4.25 4.95 5.29
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.95 - - -
CFML Loans ▲5.35 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 3.59 4.09 -
Heartland Bank - Online 2.25 1.85 2.35 2.65
Heretaunga Building Society 5.25 4.00 4.60 -
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.19 2.45 2.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - 2.25 - -
ICBC 4.15 3.29 3.85 4.19
Kainga Ora 4.43 2.88 3.28 3.59
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - 2.25 - -
Kiwibank ▲4.25 ▲4.54 ▲5.20 ▲5.54
Kiwibank - Offset ▲4.25 - - -
Kiwibank Special ▲4.25 ▲3.69 ▲4.35 ▲4.69
Liberty 4.84 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 ▲4.29 ▲4.85 -
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac 3.39 3.54 3.89 4.09
SBS Bank 4.79 3.65 4.19 4.25
SBS Bank Special - 3.15 3.69 3.75
Select Home Loans 3.49 3.34 2.99 3.34
The Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - ▲3.45 - -
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ ▲4.75 ▲3.65 ▲4.35 ▲4.69
The Co-operative Bank - Standard ▲4.75 ▲4.15 ▲4.85 ▲5.19
TSB Bank 5.34 4.09 4.74 4.99
TSB Special 4.54 3.29 3.94 4.19
Unity 5.65 4.15 4.60 -
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 ▲3.65 ▲4.05 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 5.09 ▲4.29 4.95 5.29
Westpac - Offset 5.09 - - -
Westpac Special - ▲3.69 4.35 4.69
Median 4.77 3.65 4.35 4.69

Last updated: 3 December 2021 8:16am

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