Migration continues to be big plus for housing market
ANZ National Bank’s eight gauges of the property market found property indicators had continued to improve due to rising net migration, but warned the recent gains might not be sustainable.
Tuesday, September 8th 2009, 12:00AM
by Paul McBeth
Of the eight indicators, three were negative for house prices, one was neutral with a negative bias, one was neutral, two were neutral with a positive bias, and one was positive.
Migration continued to boost the series as some 14,500 more people entered New Zealand in the 12 months ended July 31 than left, and stoked demand for housing.
"Migration is a positive for the economy and will provide support to both the housing market and spending," the bank said in its commentary. "However, some uncertainty remains whether the recent size of these migration gains can be maintained."
Supply-demand balance and consents and house sales continued to remain neutral with a positive bias as the flood of migrants continued to prop up demand for property.
ANZ National said affordability was neutral for prices as fixed mortgage rates begin to rise against as homeowners and potential buyers prepare for a rebound in the economy.
Interest rates were neutral with a negative bias as long-term mortgages begin to creep up to offset the tense competition in the deposit rate space.
Serviceability and indebtedness, liquidity, and globalisation were the three indicators dragging prices down for another month.
Overall, ANZ National Bank concluded it was a case of "wait and see" as the central bank continues to keep interest rates on hold.
Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.
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