House prices set to fall in cooling market: ANZ
The direction for house prices is down in what is a cooling market, according to ANZ's 10 property gauges.
Friday, February 19th 2010, 1:31PM
by Paul McBeth
The bank's economists say the market has been slowing down for three months and central bank loan approval data suggests this month may have wiped more momentum from property.
It picks prices to come down, with five of its 10 indicators negative, one neutral with a negative bias, one neutral, two neutral with a positive bias and one positive.
Serviceability and indebtedness, liquidity, globalisation, mortgagee sales and median rent were all negative for house prices, though most indicated the worst of the global financial crisis is over.
Interest rates was neutral with a negative bias with "some action at the longer end of the curve".
Affordability was back to more normal levels, though still shaky, and was deemed to have a neutral effect house prices.
The supply-demand balance, consents and house sales were neutral with a positive bias, with room for new construction, while migration remained the perpetual positive for house prices as a growing population requires housing.
Still, the bank's economist warn a rise in emigration to Australia could be on the cards after the so-called ‘lucky country' avoided a recession and has seen its unemployment rate steadily decline.
In conclusion, they decided there were jittery times ahead.
Paul is a staff writer for Good Returns based in Wellington.
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