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Risks and returns in this market

Friday, November 28th 2008, 7:25AM

by Philip Macalister

One of the fascinating questions for investors at the moment is asset allocation. The markets are in a mess, indeed many consider these are quite unusual times. Added to that there are huge distortions, in particular the government’s deposit guarantee scheme. So how do you allocate money? It’s a question that was discussed at last week’s SiFA conference and also at ASSET Magazine’s Roundtable event in Auckland this week. During a discussion on asset allocation at SiFA advisers openly talked about what they were doing at the moment. There were many answers and also many conflicting views. Perhaps the most surprising was on cash. While some were strongly favouring cash and holding 60-80% of portfolios in cash (that is anything up to one-year), others had next to nothing and others were moving away from cash. Where were they going? All sorts of places. Some were into listed property, others leaving. Ditto gold. Allocations to international shares were varied too. It’s easy to draw the conclusion, no one knows what to do and some will get it right, either by luck or skill, and others will fail. I don’t think that is necessarily true. One thing that is true is that it seems advisers don’t have a lot of independent research to draw on, nor are there many places they can turn to for asset allocation advice. How this sort of information gets delivered to the market is a vexed question, but one that hopefully will be addressed. Meanwhile there is a whole different story going on in retail land. Work www.depositrates.co.nz has done shows investors are jumping into finance company offerings because of the rate and the government guarantee. The short-term logic of this is clear. However, there are some potentially scary outcomes. When these investments come to maturity, new rates are likely to be much lower (so low in fact equities may look attractive again). Secondly, there is going to be a whole heap of money coming up for repayment at once and this could be problematic for the companies to handle. While the markets have been sad and not much looks good at the moment, there are opportunities out there. Seems you just have to look for them.
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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 6.19 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 8.74 7.14 6.75 6.39
ANZ 8.64 7.74 7.39 7.25
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 7.14 6.79 6.65
ASB Bank 8.64 7.14 6.75 6.39
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance 9.15 - - -
Basecorp Finance 9.60 - - -
Bluestone 9.24 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Classic - 7.14 6.79 6.65
BNZ - Green Home Loan top-ups - - - 1.00
BNZ - Mortgage One 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 8.69 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 8.69 7.74 7.39 7.25
BNZ - TotalMoney 8.69 - - -
CFML Loans 9.45 - - -
China Construction Bank - 7.09 6.75 6.49
China Construction Bank Special - - - -
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 6.79 - -
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 8.40 6.99 6.79 6.65
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Standard 8.40 7.49 7.29 7.15
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 7.45 7.35 -
First Credit Union Standard 8.50 7.99 7.85 -
Heartland Bank - Online 7.99 6.89 6.55 6.35
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 8.90 7.60 7.40 -
HSBC Premier 8.59 - - -
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 7.85 7.05 6.69 6.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 8.64 7.74 7.35 6.99
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank 8.50 7.99 7.79 7.55
Kiwibank - Offset 8.50 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 6.99 6.79 6.65
Liberty 8.59 8.69 8.79 8.94
Nelson Building Society 9.00 7.65 7.25 -
Pepper Money Advantage 10.49 - - -
Pepper Money Easy 8.69 - - -
Pepper Money Essential 8.29 - - -
Resimac - LVR < 80% 8.84 8.09 7.59 7.29
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac - LVR < 90% 9.84 9.09 8.59 8.29
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Alt Doc) - - 8.99 -
Resimac - Specialist Clear (Full Doc) - - 9.49 -
SBS Bank 8.74 7.74 ▼7.09 ▲6.95
SBS Bank Special - 7.14 ▼6.49 ▲6.35
SBS Construction lending for FHB - - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 6.19 6.14 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 9.95 - - -
Select Home Loans 9.24 - - -
TSB Bank 9.44 7.79 7.55 7.45
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 8.64 6.99 6.75 6.65
Unity 8.64 6.99 6.79 -
Unity First Home Buyer special - 6.55 6.45 -
Wairarapa Building Society 8.60 6.95 6.85 -
Westpac 8.64 7.84 7.35 6.99
Westpac Choices Everyday 8.74 - - -
Westpac Offset 8.64 - - -
Westpac Special - 7.24 6.75 6.39
Median 8.64 7.19 7.17 6.65

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