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ANZ predicts OCR cut

Lender ANZ has reversed its prediction for the OCR rate, predicting the central bank is “more likely” to lower the rate than increase it.

Tuesday, August 21st 2018, 8:13AM

by Dan Dunkley

The lender expects the OCR to remain at record lows for “foreseeable future”. It follows the Reserve Bank’s cautious language on the economic outlook this month.

Just before the Reserve Bank’s MPS announcement, ANZ economists told TMM the outlook for the OCR would be similar to that projected in the May MPS, “signalling an increase in the OCR at the end of 2019 – far enough ahead that the RBNZ can alter their strategy as the policy trade-offs and economic conditions change.”

But its weekly note to the market, ANZ economists said the Reserve Bank had made it “abundantly clear” they were reluctant to hike rates, amid sluggish economic growth. The bank believes growth will average 2.5 percent over the next couple of years, below the Reserve Bank’s forecast.

The bank’s economists, led by Sharon Zollner, said: “We are now forecasting that the OCR will be flat for the foreseeable future. Of course it is not that we literally believe the OCR will never be moved ever again; rather, we no longer believe on balance that the next move will necessarily be upwards. Indeed, given how long it is until a hike could plausibly be on the cards, the balance of risks is, if anything, tilted towards the next move being a cut.

ANZ expects core inflation to rise in the near term but says the resilience of inflation “does not look assured”.

Tags: ANZ OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Reserve Bank

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Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.79 4.55 4.79 4.99
ANZ Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
ASB Bank 5.80 4.44 4.69 4.89
ASB Bank Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.50 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.95 - - -
BNZ - Special - 4.10 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.90 4.69 4.79 4.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.90 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 5.20 5.25 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.70 4.85 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.80 4.69 4.79 4.79
HSBC Premier 5.89 3.99 4.19 4.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - 3.79 - -
HSBC Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ICBC 5.80 4.59 4.69 5.09
Kiwibank 5.80 4.55 4.69 4.99
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.80 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 6.10 5.10 5.45 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.94 5.30
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.89 4.85 5.05 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 3.95 4.49
Sovereign 5.90 4.45 4.69 4.89
Sovereign Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.75 4.10 4.35 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.75 4.60 4.85 4.99
TSB Bank 5.80 4.45 4.69 4.99
TSB Special - 3.95 4.19 4.49
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.95 4.69 4.79 5.19
Westpac - Offset 5.95 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.15 4.29 4.59
Median 5.89 4.50 4.69 4.79

Last updated: 2 December 2018 8:39pm

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