About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds Other Sites:   tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz
Last Article Uploaded: Thursday, January 23rd, 6:22PM
rss
Latest Headlines

Economists revise OCR outlook

Leading economists have revised their predictions for the official cash rate next year, predicting less action from the Reserve Bank in the next 12 months.

Monday, December 16th 2019, 4:19PM

Westpac's Dominick Stephens no longer expects an OCR cut in February or at any point in the first half of 2020, amid positive signs from the economy and housing market. 

"The New Zealand economy and housing market have lived up to our more constructive forecasts and then some," Stephens said.

The bank expects conditions to deteriorate through 2020, forcing the RBNZ to cut the OCR to 0.75% in August. 

"Our OCR forecast strikes a balance within a spectrum of possibilities. We could easily envisage the OCR remaining at 1% all year or falling to 0.5%, depending on the data," the Westpac economist said.

Kiwibank economists agree. The bank now expects a cut in August, amid a "little brighter" outlook for NZ GDP and the housing market.

BNZ economists say the "fundamental case for OCR cuts has diminished significantly" over the past few months. 

"NZ business confidence has shown signs of bottoming, the housing market is experiencing an upturn, the RBNZ will need to take account of the government’s spending plans," BNZ economists, including Stephen Toplis, said.

ASB economists still expect a May OCR cut, but admit "the risk is clearly rising that the RBNZ is done". 

In their latest report, ASB said it expects the OCR to remain at 0.75% from May next year until 2022, when "gradual hikes" are likely to occur. 

ANZ economists also expect a cut in May. They expect "there's still a bit more work for the RBNZ to do to support employment and inflation expectations".

The economists say domestic inflation figures could tip the balance for the Reserve Bank next year. 

"If downside global risks don’t materialise, we’re expecting that by May the RBNZ will realise that inflation is still not heading sustainably up to the 2% target midpoint, and to cut the OCR once more. But it remains a story of growth just not quite delivering what the RBNZ needs to be confident of hitting its inflation target, not a tale of woe and despair."

Tags: ANZ ASB OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Reserve Bank Westpac

« Reserve Bank demands improvements from ANZNon-bank lending soars »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.19 4.05 4.05 4.49
ANZ Special - 3.55 3.55 3.99
ASB Bank 5.20 3.89 4.05 4.39
ASB Bank Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Classic - 3.49 3.55 3.89
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.90 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.35 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.30 4.45 4.35 4.55
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.30 - - -
China Construction Bank 5.50 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 3.19 3.19 3.19
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union Auckland 5.95 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 3.99 4.49 -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 ▼4.65 ▼4.80 -
HSBC Premier 5.24 3.54 3.54 3.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 5.15 3.18 3.18 3.20
Kainga Ora 5.18 3.97 4.05 4.39
Kiwibank ▼5.15 4.20 4.30 4.64
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.15 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 3.45 3.55 3.89
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 5.70 4.25 4.15 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 5.64 - 5.44 5.44
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Pepper Money Prime 5.18 - 4.98 4.98
Pepper Money Specialist 7.59 - 7.39 7.39
Resimac 4.50 ▼4.45 3.89 3.94
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.29 4.85 5.05 5.49
SBS Bank Special - 3.39 ▲3.55 3.89
Sovereign 5.30 3.89 4.05 4.39
Sovereign Special - 3.39 3.55 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.15 3.49 3.59 3.89
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.15 3.99 4.09 4.39
TSB Bank 6.09 4.19 4.35 4.69
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
TSB Special 5.29 3.39 3.55 3.89
Wairarapa Building Society ▼5.50 ▼3.95 ▼4.05 -
Westpac 5.34 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 5.34 - - -
Westpac Special - 3.39 3.55 3.99
Median 5.34 3.97 4.05 4.39

Last updated: 23 January 2020 4:42pm

News Quiz

The maximum remuneration model for Australian life insurance advisers is to be set at what?

Upfront 40% + trail 20%

Upfront 50% + trail 10%

Upfront 50% + trail 20%

Upfront 60% + trail 10%

Upfront 60% + trail 20%

MORE QUIZZES »

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com