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OCR increase pushed out

Wednesday, January 31st 2018, 9:17AM

New Zealand’s official cash rate is unlikely to move up until the end of next year, Westpac economists say.

Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in the December quarter.

Westpac said it expected inflation to remain below the Reserve Bank’s 2% target through this year.

“While there are signs that the period of very weak global inflation that we saw in recent years is dissipating, we’re certainly not in an environment where imported inflation is about to rocket higher. In addition, the continuation of strong competitive pressures in the retail sector means that the domestic prices of imported consumer goods are likely to remain soft for an extended period. The recent appreciation of the NZD since the start of this year also reinforces our expectation for softness in tradables prices through mid-2018,” the economists said.

“The chances of a significant rise in domestic inflation also look slim. Recently released GDP figures showed that the New Zealand economy had been growing at a solid pace in recent years, with growth topping out at 4% through 2016. But even with solid domestic activity and rising pressures in the construction sector, we did not see a material lift in non-tradables inflation.

“Now, growth has eased off, and recent business sector indicators point to a further softening in activity through the early part of 2018. Combine those conditions with changes in government charges (like reduced costs for tertiary education and doctors’ visits), and a strong rise in domestic inflation over the coming year looks like a longshot.”

Tags: OCR OCR forecasts

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ANZ 5.79 4.55 4.79 4.99
ANZ Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
ASB Bank 5.80 4.44 4.69 4.89
ASB Bank Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.50 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 5.95 - - -
BNZ - Special - 4.10 4.29 4.49
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 5.90 4.69 4.79 4.99
BNZ - TotalMoney 5.90 - - -
Credit Union Auckland 6.70 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 6.15 5.20 5.25 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Credit Union North 6.45 - - -
Credit Union South 6.45 - - -
Finance Direct - - - -
First Credit Union 5.85 - - -
Heartland 6.70 7.00 7.25 7.85
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 5.75 4.70 4.85 -
Housing NZ Corp 5.80 4.69 4.79 4.79
HSBC Premier 5.89 3.99 4.19 4.69
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - 3.79 - -
HSBC Special - - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
ICBC 5.80 4.59 4.69 5.09
Kiwibank 5.80 4.55 4.69 4.99
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset 5.80 - - -
Kiwibank Special - 4.05 4.29 4.49
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Napier Building Society - - - -
Nelson Building Society 6.10 5.10 5.45 -
Resimac 5.30 4.86 4.94 5.30
RESIMAC Special - - - -
SBS Bank 5.89 4.85 5.05 4.49
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.19 3.95 4.49
Sovereign 5.90 4.45 4.69 4.89
Sovereign Special - 3.95 4.29 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.75 4.10 4.35 4.49
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.75 4.60 4.85 4.99
TSB Bank 5.80 4.45 4.69 4.99
TSB Special - 3.95 4.19 4.49
Wairarapa Building Society 5.70 4.85 4.99 -
Westpac 5.95 4.69 4.79 5.19
Westpac - Offset 5.95 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.15 4.29 4.59
Median 5.89 4.50 4.69 4.79

Last updated: 2 December 2018 8:39pm

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