tmmonline.nz  |   landlords.co.nz        About Good Returns  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  RSS Feeds

NZ's Financial Adviser News Centre

GR Logo
Last Article Uploaded: Saturday, July 11th, 12:05PM

Mortgages

rss
Latest Headlines

OCR Preview Survey: economists say OCR will stay on hold

The official cash rate will stay on hold next week, but the Reserve Bank will urge downside caution over the impact of the coronavirus, according to TMM's OCR Preview Survey.

Friday, February 7th 2020, 10:43AM

The survey of leading New Zealand economists reveals 100% of commentators believe the OCR will stay on hold next week, amid signs of green shoots in the economy and rising house prices.

However, the coronavirus is likely to have an impact on China's major trading partners, including New Zealand. The virus, which has spread rapidly over the past few weeks, could force the Reserve Bank to adopt a more negative outlook on the economy. 

Economists believe there is a 75%-99% chance the OCR will be kept on hold next week. A total of 78% of economists believe the OCR will fall further this year, while 22% say it won't fall any further in this cycle. 

The coronavirus is expected to be a fly in the ointment for the NZ economy, and a negative shock for economic growth. 

Economists believe it is the main issue to look out for amid next week's MPS and OCR announcement. 

Independent economist Michael Reddell says markets should "expect a move to a conditional easing bias, almost wholly on back of coronavirus risk – a classic negative demand shock, but uncertain as to size and duration". 

ANZ's Sharon Zollner (pictured), expects the central bank to "acknowledge the stronger domestic picture that would have normally made them very comfortable sitting on the side-lines. However, they will acknowledge the human impact of the tragic new coronavirus, with cautious language about possible risks to the economic outlook".

Tony Alexander believes "they [the RBNZ] will note a new bias toward cutting in light of the coronavirus effect". 

Brad Olsen, an economist at Infometrics, adds: "We expect the Reserve Bank will note that it stands ready to provide even more accommodative monetary policy if conditions warrant, particularly in response to a further slowdown in global growth. 

"The Reserve bank will also likely make a firm statement about its monitoring of the coronavirus outbreak, and that it is prepared to step in should the economic picture deteriorate due to the impact of the virus on New Zealand trade and general economic position," Olsen added.

Tags: OCR OCR forecasts RBNZ Sharon Zollner Tony Alexander

« ANZ gets tough on data securityASB reveals its position on FAPs »

Special Offers

Comments from our readers

No comments yet

Sign In to add your comment

 

print

Printable version  

print

Email to a friend
News Bites
Latest Comments
  • Harking back to the old days
    “Tactical move by CIGNA and looks like they have a lot of bench strength now in sales, underwriting and product / pricing...”
    18 hours ago by hitting rock
  • Greens want ACC extended to cover sickness
    “Never happen. The Greens are such an aspirational bunch. Must all the weed. They 'want' all sorts of unlikely things...”
    21 hours ago by All hat no cattle
  • Harking back to the old days
    “Really positive news. NZ has been blessed by many successful leaders and it is good that their skills can skill be utilised...”
    1 day ago by Francis L
  • Harking back to the old days
    “I dare say Cigna just got that extra grunt it's been looking for....”
    1 day ago by Matron
  • Greens want ACC extended to cover sickness
    “The Greens have no idea The purpose of the Woodhouse report was to remove the "at fault" component of accidents Sickness...”
    2 days ago by LNF
Subscribe Now

Mortgage Rates Newsletter

Daily Weekly

Previous News

MORE NEWS»

Most Commented On
Mortgage Rates Table

Full Rates Table | Compare Rates

Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA 4.55 3.19 3.19 3.49
AIA Special - 2.69 2.69 2.99
ANZ 4.44 3.15 3.25 ▼3.39
ANZ Special - ▼2.55 ▼2.69 ▼2.79
ASB Bank 4.45 3.19 3.19 3.49
ASB Bank Special - 2.69 2.69 2.99
Bluestone 4.44 4.44 4.44 4.44
BNZ - Classic - 2.65 2.69 2.99
BNZ - Mortgage One 5.15 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 4.60 - - -
BNZ - Std, FlyBuys 4.55 3.25 3.29 3.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - TotalMoney 4.55 - - -
China Construction Bank 4.49 4.70 4.80 4.95
China Construction Bank Special - 2.65 2.65 2.80
Credit Union Auckland 5.45 - - -
Credit Union Baywide 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
Credit Union South 5.65 4.75 4.75 -
First Credit Union Special 5.85 3.35 3.85 -
Heartland 3.95 2.89 2.97 3.39
Heartland Bank - Online - - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 4.99 4.35 4.45 -
HSBC Premier 4.49 2.60 2.65 2.80
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
HSBC Premier LVR > 80% - - - -
HSBC Special - - - -
ICBC 3.99 2.58 2.68 2.79
Kainga Ora 4.43 3.29 3.39 3.85
Kiwibank 3.40 3.40 3.54 4.00
Kiwibank - Capped - - - -
Kiwibank - Offset - - - -
Kiwibank Special 3.40 2.65 2.79 3.25
Liberty 5.69 - - -
Nelson Building Society 4.95 3.45 3.49 -
Pepper Essential 4.79 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Resimac 3.49 3.45 3.39 3.69
SBS Bank 4.54 3.29 3.19 3.49
SBS Bank Special - 2.79 2.69 2.99
The Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 4.40 ▼2.69 ▼2.75 ▼2.99
The Co-operative Bank - Standard 4.40 ▼3.19 ▼3.25 ▼3.49
TSB Bank 5.34 ▼3.35 3.49 3.79
TSB Special 4.54 ▼2.55 2.69 2.99
Wairarapa Building Society 4.99 3.75 3.99 -
Westpac 4.59 4.15 4.09 4.49
Westpac - Offset 4.59 - - -
Westpac Special - ▼2.55 2.69 2.79
Median 4.55 3.19 3.22 3.39

Last updated: 10 July 2020 9:02am

About Us  |  Advertise  |  Contact Us  |  Terms & Conditions  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Feeds  |  Letters  |  Archive  |  Toolbox
 
Site by Web Developer and eyelovedesign.com