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World Cup as predicted by actuaries

QBE reckons New Zealand has the best chance of taking out the Rugby World Cup.

Tuesday, September 22nd 2015, 6:00AM

by Susan Edmunds

The insurer’s actuarial team has developed a model that can be used to predict the outcome of rugby matches.

It says New Zealand is the most likely winner, with a 44.3% chance of taking home the Rugby World Cup.

The Rugby Predictor uses modelling techniques to simulate the entire tournament 5000 times, across 240,000 games.

Each match was replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and kicks scored by each team.

The scores were determined by how well each team has played in the past against similarly-ranked opposition, as well as its kickers’ success ratio, the impact of each team playing at home or away and the international experience of captains.

The predictor uses probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome.

England was deemed the second-most likely winner, at 21.5%. South Africa, recently embarrassed by Japan, was a distant third at 8.4%. Australia came in at 8.2%.

Tags: QBE

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